War clouds intensify as US, Iran set for escalation

But Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian on Saturday said there should be a new attempt at concluding the deal. “We were having negotiations, the cowards (Americans) messed everything up. I still think we should go and conclude it,” Pezeshkian said in a state address on TV, blaming the US for the failure of an interim deal. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Saturday also claimed that Iran maintained full control over the Strait of Hormuz, asserting that security was being maintained for vessels operating in the region in accordance with Iranian regulations.

This week, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also made an unannounced stop in Israel — which launched the war against Iran alongside the US — where he met with PM Benjamin Netanyahu just days ahead of the Israeli leader’s reelection bid. Staffing at Mideast bases, which have been hit hard by Iran, has reportedly been reduced. This week the US State Department ordered the departure of some diplomats and families in Saudi Arabia, following the Iran-backed Houthis expanding the conflict into Saudi Arabia.

Houthis have pummelled the Riyadh airport and energy facilities with drones and missiles, killing dozens and wounding hundreds. On Saturday they said they had attacked the King Fahd International Airport, International Airport in Dammam, airport in Najran and airbase in Khamis Mushait, besides the Rabigh oil refinery and Aramco facility in Yanbu. There was no confirmation from Saudi Arabia on these claims.

Against that backdrop, Iran is now bracing for a fresh US bombing campaign around the midterms. It is also preparing to retaliate across the Middle East, including against Israel and the United Arab Emirates, according to a person familiar with Tehran’s thinking. The period between the US election and when the new Congress takes office in early January will be the most difficult period, and the only way out of the current conflict is a deal that allows both sides to claim a win, this person said, declining to be named because they weren’t authorised to speak publicly.

Some Gulf-state officials have a high degree of confidence that violence will resume, and said they fear it could be worse than before the pause, according to a person familiar with the UAE government’s thinking. Addressing an election rally in Florida Friday, US President Donald Trump warned that Washington could launch “another little Epic Fury” against Iran if Tehran failed to reach an agreement.

Meanwhile, Iran is attacking more ships in or near the Strait of Hormuz — and causing more severe damage — than earlier in the conflict at it deploys guided missiles rather than attack drones, according to shipping and maritime security officials. “All indications point to a resumption of war and a major bombing campaign, although the timing remains uncertain,” said Asli Aydintasbas, an expert on the Middle East at the Brookings Institution.

Trump’s own comments suggest strikes are unlikely ahead of the midterms on November 3, where his Republican party faces the prospect of losing one chamber of Congress if not both, in part because of the war-related high fuel prices in the US. Renewed fighting could help Netanyahu force political rivals into a national unity government, while strikes could help Trump project a “dramatic show of force to project strength at home,” according to International Crisis Group Mideast expert Ali Vaez.

The US and Israeli elections are complicating efforts to stop the march toward war, and other nations must step up efforts to reach a deal before it’s too late, a senior European diplomat said. The heated Israeli election — the first since the Hamas attacks in 2023 that sparked Netanyahu’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon — is Tuesday. If Netanyahu loses the election, his chief rival, Gadi Eisenkot, may not be as eager to begin his term restarting the Iran war.

In recent months, the White House has also added to a punishing naval blockade of Iranian ports by ramping up economic sanctions targeting Tehran’s remaining trade partners. While the sanctions campaign has underwhelmed experts, the naval blockade continues to have a real impact, though growing pressure may push Iran to strike out across the Gulf. “The smart thing for the president to do would be to let the current strategy play out,” said Bradley Bowman, a foreign policy and defense expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

The conflict has disrupted energy flows from the Persian Gulf and pushed Brent crude, the global benchmark, up more than 80% this year. That’s caused US gasoline prices to surge and fueled cost-of-living concerns at home that have upset the GOP’s election prospects. The US military has had some success helping ships through the Strait of Hormuz. But oil prices are rising once again on fears of military escalation in the region amid the attacks on Saudi Arabia.

Brent futures are also rising as traders try to gauge whether the US will escalate the war after the midterms. “There are some differences, including approaching elections in the US and Israel, significant disruptions in Strait of Hormuz, and a more intransigent Iran,” they added. “Yet these point to a higher, not a lower, likelihood of renewed fighting.”