Crude imports set to hit record in October

"Atlantic Basin barrels provided the main offset to the decline in Middle Eastern arrivals in October," said Nikhil Dubey, senior research analyst, refining and modelling, at Kpler. 1% of FY27 target Russia retained its position as India's largest crude supplier, with arrivals rising by around 100,000 bpd from September to 1.97 million bpd in October. However, this remained substantially below July's peak of 2.82 million bpd, when Russia accounted for 55% of India's imports.

Its share stood at around 35% in October, indicating a broader diversification of suppliers despite higher Russian volumes. The sharpest change was in shipments arriving from west of the Suez Canal. These doubled to around 1.2 million bpd from 600,000 bpd in September, according to Kpler data, providing refiners with additional supplies as Middle Eastern deliveries declined. Angola led the increase, with shipments rising to approximately 335,000 bpd from just 36,000 bpd a month earlier.

Venezuelan arrivals climbed to around 345,000 bpd from 196,000 bpd, making the two producers major contributors to the Atlantic Basin surge. Shipments from the US also increased, though on a smaller scale, to around 157,000 bpd from 142,000 bpd in September. Brazilian supplies rose to approximately 102,000 bpd from 90,000 bpd. Middle Eastern imports moved in the opposite direction. Kpler's October 29 assessment put arrivals from the region at around 2.3 million bpd, down from 2.7 million bpd in September.

The decline came despite several producers offering more competitive terms to defend their share of the Indian market. Saudi Arabia remained the largest Middle Eastern supplier, with shipments rising to around 661,000 bpd from 517,000 bpd. Iraq, the second-largest supplier from the region, saw volumes fall to approximately 411,000 bpd from 525,000 bpd. 269 billion to $719.748 billion Deliveries from the United Arab Emirates dropped to around 359,000 bpd from 505,000 bpd, while Kuwait's shipments declined to roughly 139,000 bpd from 339,000 bpd.

These falls outweighed the increase in Saudi supplies. "Middle Eastern producers are positioning more aggressively to defend market share," Dubey wrote, referring to pricing concessions and offers on a delivered-at-port basis. Under such arrangements, suppliers organise shipping and include transportation costs in the price quoted to refiners. This reduces buyers' direct exposure to fluctuations in tanker freight rates compared with independently chartering vessels.

Such competitive offers could help Gulf producers regain some of the market share lost to other suppliers, particularly as refiners assess the final cost of crude delivered to Indian ports rather than quoted prices alone. This could pose a challenge to Russia in the final two months of the year. Higher freight charges are already eroding the price advantage of Russian crude delivered to India, while Middle Eastern producers are seeking to win back business through pricing concessions and shipping offers.

"Russian flows could face further pressure in November and December as elevated freight costs erode their delivered-price advantage, while recovering Middle Eastern supplies offer refiners increasingly competitive alternatives," Dubey said. For October, however, steady Russian purchases and sharply higher Atlantic Basin arrivals are set to take India's crude imports to a record, even as the sources of its oil supplies continue to shift.