China eyes curbs on 12 solar technologies: Could it be a long-term gain for India?

Stakeholders have until November 15, 2026, to submit feedback. According to a report by JM Financial, this development is structurally positive for Indian solar manufacturing as it could accelerate backward integration. However, the firm notes that the broader implications will bring short-term disruptions without delivering an immediate earnings windfall for players like Waaree Energies, Premier Energies, and Emmvee Photovoltaic.

The report also cautions against assuming that every Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact (TOPCon) production line, Chinese machine, or technology transfer will automatically be prohibited. China built its dominance in solar manufacturing using cheap labour, massive production scale, and an integrated supplier ecosystem. However, the report suggests that Beijing fears that sharing its core IP could hand a strategic advantage to foreign competitors.

Consequently, China aims to remain a global supplier of finished solar modules while strictly restricting the export of upstream manufacturing technologies and equipment. The United States, India, and several European nations are actively trying to develop domestic solar manufacturing capabilities according to the report. While Chinese equipment and technology providers historically profited by helping these foreign markets establish assembly lines, operational independence of overseas factories reduce reliance on Chinese exports.

By retaining tight control over advanced wafer, ingot, and cell manufacturing processes, China ensures overseas producers remain dependent on its technological ecosystem. Furthermore, technology controls are increasingly deployed as instruments of national security. China is expanding export controls across solar, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology simultaneously instead of treating solar energy as an isolated sector.

If China implements technology controls selectively while continuing to export modules and cells, Indian companies can still source permitted equipment. This allows domestic manufacturers to expand cell production and progressively build upstream capabilities, as per the report. In another case, if equipment approvals and technology transfers become slower or more uncertain, Indian manufacturers will face commissioning delays, rising capital expenditures, and slower production ramp-ups.

In the third scenario, if Indian manufacturers struggle to access advanced technology while Chinese suppliers continue exporting finished products at competitive prices, domestic producers will bear higher operational costs without securing sufficient pricing power. How are other countries restricting Chinese solar technology? A growing number of countries are responding by imposing strict restrictions on critical solar hardware, particularly inverters originating from China.

Within Europe, the EU has banned public funding, as well as financial support from the European Investment Bank and European Investment Fund, for clean energy projects that use inverters sourced from high-risk non-EU countries. Meanwhile, some nations are taking direct legislative action. Lithuania passed laws blocking remote Chinese access to solar, wind, and battery storage installations over 100 kW, while Estonia and the United Kingdom have initiated formal risk reviews targeting similar grid vulnerabilities.

The report mentioned that across the Atlantic and in Asia, regulatory barriers are tightening as well. The US administration and the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) introduced strict bans and import curbs on foreign-connected power inverters and robotic devices from high-risk suppliers, citing risks of remote power grid disruption and cyber-espionage. Similarly, India is pursuing supply-chain security through domestic policy, implementing minimum localisation requirements across the solar PV value chain, wind turbine generators, inverters, and Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS).