Why this week could test Wall Street even if the Fed stays quiet

All these events are likely to influence investor sentiment. Will Warsh Drop Any Hints on Rates This Week? The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting begins on October 27. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will announce the policy decision on October 28. Investors will look for clues on the interest-rate outlook, particularly as inflation remains elevated and concerns about economic growth persist. Do not expect Warsh to reveal much, though.

He has often said that inflation remains the priority, but decisions will be based on incoming data. Warsh is not in favour of providing forward guidance, so markets remain unsure about the Fed’s next move. The futures market expects rates to remain unchanged in October with over 90% probability, but forecasts a 25bps rate hike in December, with 70% chances. Key events to watch on Wall Street this week DateEventWhat investors will watch10/27/26US consumer confidence and durable goods ordersConsumer sentiment, business demand and economic strengthOctober 27–28Federal Reserve policy meetingInterest-rate decision and signals on future rate moves10/28/26Fed policy decisionInflation outlook and clues on a possible December rate hike10/28/26Microsoft and Alphabet earningsAI spending, data-centre investments and returns10/29/26Amazon and Intel earningsCloud growth, AI demand and semiconductor outlook10/29/26US Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation dataEconomic growth and inflation pressuresOctober 29–30Bank of Japan policy meetingInterest rates and Japan's inflation outlook10/28/26Bank of Canada policy decisionInterest-rate outlook and economic conditions10/29/26European Central Bank policy decisionInflation, growth and borrowing costs10/31/26Exxon Mobil and Chevron earningsOil prices, energy demand and earnings outlook Three More Central Banks Join the Action The Fed is not the only one deciding.

The Bank of Canada also announces its decision on Wednesday. The ECB follows on Thursday. Then comes Japan. The BOJ meets October 29 to 30 and is reportedly leaning toward leaving rates unchanged, even though Japan’s core inflation rose to 2.1% in September from 1.7% in August. That is the first reading above the BOJ’s 2% target since December 2025. The pressure to act is building. Globally, inflation remains in focus and therefore how some of the world's major central banks use monetary policy tool to tame it remains to be seen.

Big Tech Earnings Put AI Spending on Trial The earnings calendar is another major focus. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon are among the companies scheduled to report results this week. Their earnings and comments on AI investments could help investors judge whether the enormous spending on data centres and computing infrastructure is turning into sustainable business growth. According to market experts, concerns about AI investment, financing needs and potential returns have become important drivers of stock market sentiment.

The reaction to the results could matter as much as the numbers. Over 40% of S&P 500 companies report this week, including some mega-cap tech companies. Boeing, Coca-Cola, UPS, PayPal and Visa report on Tuesday. Microsoft and Alphabet report on Wednesday after the market close. Amazon and Intel follow on Thursday. Exxon Mobil and Chevron close out the week on Friday. Technology stocks came under pressure, while small-cap and value stocks outperformed.

That points to a shift away from some of the market’s biggest growth names. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.71% for the week, while the S&P 500 declined 0.47%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.41%, and the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks rose 2%. Meta was among the notable decliners as investors focused on its capital spending plans and potential financing needs. Meta and Netflix both fell more than 5% after earnings, dragging communication services down over 5%.

So, what is weighing on tech stocks? The pressure intensified towards the end of the week. Investors questioned whether heavy investments in AI infrastructure, including data centres and computing capacity, would generate enough returns to justify the spending. Concerns over funding needs and elevated valuations also weighed on semiconductor and other AI-related stocks. Why Did Bond Yields Fall Despite Inflation Worries?

Expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates still prevail. Even so, investors rushed to buy bonds, pulling yields lower. Treasury yields dropped sharply as tech sold off and geopolitical worries grew. The 10-year yield slipped below 5% for the first time in about a month and settled near 4.99% on Friday. It remains at the same level on Monday. Oil Climbs Above $116 While Gold Slips 4% Oil went the other way, trading above $116 a barrel, while gold fell 4% on the week to around $4,010.

Oil and gold continue to trade around the same levels on Monday. Oil returned to focus as renewed tensions in the Middle East raised concerns about energy supplies. Higher oil prices could put further pressure on inflation, complicating the Fed’s task of bringing price growth under control. For equity investors, expensive energy, persistent inflation and uncertainty over interest rates make for a tough mix.

Higher borrowing costs can weigh on valuations, particularly for growth companies whose expected profits lie further in the future. The Dates That Could Move Markets The key question for Wall Street is whether the Fed’s guidance, upcoming economic data and Big Tech earnings can restore confidence in the market’s growth outlook. Investors will be particularly focused on AI spending, the trajectory of inflation and whether the recent shift towards value stocks and smaller companies continues.

The main events to watch are: October 27, consumer confidence and durable goods: These reports will help investors assess household sentiment and business demand. October 28, Federal Reserve decision: Investors will assess the rate decision and the Fed chair’s comments for clues about future policy. October 28 and 29, Big Tech earnings: Results from Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon will provide fresh evidence on AI demand, capital expenditure and potential returns.

October 29, US GDP and PCE inflation: The first estimate of third-quarter GDP and September personal income and spending data, including the PCE inflation measure, will offer fresh insight into growth and price pressures. What Comes After the Midterms? US midterm elections are next week. Even so, interest rates, inflation and AI earnings could drive sharp moves in the market this week. How oil reacts once the elections are over will influence financial markets in a big way.

Watch out for big moves in mid-November, before a clear direction for the markets emerges. Disclaimer: This article provides factual analysis only and is not, and should not be construed as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell securities. Investment in foreign securities involves significant risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial reporting standards, and varying regulatory environments.

The historical performance of US stocks is not a guarantee of future returns, and gains should not be viewed as an offer or solicitation to buy. Investors must conduct their own independent due diligence and seek advice from a registered financial advisor. Financial Express is not responsible for any decisions made based on this information.