US midterms: What a Democratic Congress could mean for immigration, taxes and spending

Nonpartisan analysts believe Democrats have a strong chance of winning the House of Representatives, while control of the Senate remains uncertain, according to Reuters. However, even if Democrats win both chambers, Trump will retain his presidential veto power and broad executive authority, limiting how much of their agenda they can implement. Here are the key policy changes the US could see if Democrats gain control of Congress.

Greater congressional oversight of the Iran war One of the biggest areas of conflict could be the US military campaign against Iran. According to Reuters, Trump launched the war against Iran on February 28 without obtaining congressional approval. Democrats have repeatedly voted to end the fighting unless the president seeks approval from lawmakers. One such resolution passed with support from a handful of Republicans, but the administration did not act on it.

A Democratic victory could increase congressional scrutiny of the administration's immigration policies (Reuters) If Democrats take control of either chamber, they could use their influence over defence spending to pressure the administration to seek congressional approval for continuing the war. They could also require administration officials to testify publicly about military plans. Morgan Stanley flags energy prices as a key risk However, a Democratic victory would not automatically end the conflict.

Trump would retain significant authority over foreign policy, and the extent of congressional influence would depend on the election results and support from individual lawmakers. More military and financial support for Ukraine Democrats could also push for renewed US support for Ukraine as it continues to fight Russia's invasion. Reuters reported that Trump has largely halted direct US financial and military aid to Ukraine, despite support for assistance among lawmakers from both parties.

His decision to lift sanctions on Russian diesel and waive sanctions on Russian energy has also angered some members of Congress. If Democrats win control of both chambers, they would gain greater power to decide which bills are considered and when they are brought to a vote. This could create an opportunity to approve additional aid for Ukraine. Reuters reported that such legislation could potentially secure the two-thirds majority required to override a presidential veto.

Democrats could also seek to block Trump's plans to bring Russian diesel back into the global market. Representative Gregory Meeks of New York, who could lead the House Foreign Affairs Committee if Democrats win control, has introduced bipartisan legislation on the issue. However, the outcome would depend on whether Democrats can secure enough support in Congress to move their proposals forward. Possible limits on military aid to Israel US military assistance to Israel could face greater scrutiny under a Democratic-controlled Congress.

According to Reuters, support for Israel has fallen among Democrats because of its conduct during the Gaza war, which has killed tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians. Continued violence in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's close relationship with Republicans have also contributed to the change. The US provided Israel with $3.8 billion in military aid in the most recent fiscal year, more than it provided to any other country, Reuters reported.

The figure does not mean that all 81 aircraft were destroyed. Some aircraft were damaged and later returned to active service (Reuters) A Democratic majority could push for restrictions on military assistance or seek to end some forms of aid. Nearly half of House Democrats voted during the summer to cut off aid to Israel. Some lawmakers who opposed that proposal, including Meeks, have supported restrictions on weapons such as heavy bombs.

A change in congressional control would not guarantee an immediate reduction in aid. Lawmakers would still need sufficient support to pass legislation or secure changes to existing arrangements. According to Reuters, Trump requested a 67% increase in the military budget this year, taking it to $1.5 trillion. Democrats blocked the proposal in the Senate, citing the administration's handling of the Iran war and deep cuts to social programmes.

If Democrats gain control of Congress, they could push for lower military spending and greater scrutiny of the administration's defence priorities. They could also seek to restore billions of dollars in foreign aid that Trump has withheld or cancelled despite congressional approval. The extent of these changes would depend on the size of the Democratic majority and the willingness of lawmakers from both parties to support spending proposals.

More scrutiny of immigration and Trump's executive powers A Democratic victory could increase congressional scrutiny of the administration's immigration policies, although it would not necessarily bring an immediate change to border enforcement or deportations. A CNBC poll found that Democrats were concerned about continued Immigration and Customs Enforcement deportations if Republicans retained control of Congress.

Republican voters, meanwhile, worried that a Democratic-controlled Congress could weaken border security and raise taxes. The poll, conducted by Hart Research Associates and Public Opinion Strategies between October 14 and 18 among 1,000 registered voters, also showed concerns about the concentration of power in the presidency. According to CNBC, 44% of respondents feared that Trump would be allowed to operate beyond his constitutional powers.

This included 74% of Democrats and 45% of independents. A Democratic-controlled House could investigate the administration through congressional hearings and subpoenas. It could also pass bills challenging aspects of Trump's policies on immigration, healthcare, abortion rights and artificial intelligence data centres. However, Republicans could block many such proposals in the Senate if they retain control of that chamber.

Greater focus on healthcare, living costs and data centres Democrats could use their control of Congress to push policies addressing household expenses, healthcare costs and the expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure. Reuters reported that a Democratic majority could advance bills on healthcare, abortion rights, housing and living costs, even if these proposals face difficulties in the Senate.

If Democrats also win the Senate, they would have a stronger position to negotiate with the White House over economic policies, government funding and the debt ceiling. However, major legislative changes would remain difficult. Most Senate legislation requires 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, a rule that allows the minority party to block or delay bills. Trump could also veto legislation that reaches his desk.

The economy is likely to remain central to the political debate. CNBC reported that affordability ranked highly among voters' concerns across the political spectrum. Government corruption was also a major concern for Democrats and independents, while Republicans prioritised immigration and border security. Investigations, judicial appointments and budget battles The extent of the policy change would depend on whether Democrats win the House alone or take control of both chambers.If Democrats win only the House, they could take control of congressional committees, launch investigations into the administration and use subpoenas to demand information.

However, Senate Republicans could block many Democratic legislative priorities. If Democrats win both the House and Senate, they could also gain greater influence over judicial nominations, cabinet appointments and ambassadorial confirmations. They could seek to delay or block Trump's judicial nominees. Even then, the president would retain his veto power, and Democrats would face limits imposed by Senate rules and narrow majorities.

Reuters also reported that disputes over government funding and the debt ceiling could intensify in 2027, regardless of the election outcome. Such confrontations could unsettle financial markets and complicate economic planning. What happens if Democrats win? A Democratic victory could make it harder for Trump to pursue his agenda without congressional scrutiny. The party could push for changes to military spending, foreign aid, support for Ukraine, military assistance to Israel and oversight of immigration policies.

However, winning Congress would not give Democrats complete control over US policymaking. Trump would remain president, retain executive powers and be able to veto legislation. The size of the Democratic majority would also matter. A narrow victory could lead to investigations and political confrontations, while a larger majority could give the party more bargaining power over spending and policy.

Ultimately, the November 3 midterm elections could reshape the balance of power in Washington. Whether that translates into major policy changes will depend on the election results, support from individual lawmakers and the ability of Democrats to overcome the institutional limits on presidential and congressional power.