UltraTech Cement shares down 11% in a year: InCred Equities says recovery ahead | Check target, upside, rationale

We maintain our thesis and continue to prefer UTCEM over the medium- to long-term, given the visibility on the volume front & improvement in profitability. Downside risks: Weak demand and pricing, and a rise in input costs,” the firm said.The brokerage firm said that management expects India’s cement demand to grow around 10% year-on-year (YoY) in Q2FY27, while growth for the first half of FY27 is estimated at 7.5-8%.

Demand is expected to improve further from mid-November 2026 as the monsoon season ends and the festive period concludes. Infrastructure development, housing demand and private-sector capital expenditure are likely to support growth.The company reported sales volume of 38.2 million tonnes (mt), registering a 12.9% YoY increase. Domestic grey cement volume grew 13.8%, with UltraTech Cement continuing to grow faster than the industry.

Management said volumes could have been higher if additional production capacity had been available. Regionally, volume growth exceeded 20% in North India, stood at 15-20% in the South, around 10% in the West and Central regions, and nearly 5% in the East. Prolonged rainfall and floods affected demand in eastern markets, while southern markets witnessed strong demand and improving prices.The average cement price for the quarter remained largely stable compared with the previous quarter, as weakness in August 2026 was offset by an improvement in September.

Trade prices increased by around ₹7-10 per bag month-on-month in September, while October 2026 prices were approximately 5% higher than the Q2 average.It further said that management expects cement prices to improve further over the coming months, with the full impact of recent price hikes likely to be reflected in Q3FY27 earnings. Pricing will continue to depend on demand and supply conditions, while cement companies are increasingly focusing on improving profitability.UltraTech Cement share price performanceUltraTech Cement shares have witnessed mixed performance across different time periods.

The stock has gained 0.31% over the past week, indicating a marginal uptick, but declined 0.95% over the past month. On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, the stock is down 8.44%, while it has fallen 11.72% over the past year, reflecting weakness in its recent performance.Over the longer term, UltraTech Cement has delivered positive returns, with its shares rising 28.78% over three years and 52.40% over five years.Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only.

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