Trump’s approval rating hits record-low 31% – Are Democrats leading?

Democrats had a seven-point lead in the same poll two weeks ago, when they were ahead by 44% to 37%. The findings point to growing public dissatisfaction with Trump’s handling of the economy. However, even if Democrats win control of both chambers of Congress, Trump would retain his presidential veto and wide powers over areas such as immigration, tariffs and foreign policy. According to Reuters, 50% of women surveyed said they would vote for a Democratic candidate, compared with 32% who favoured Republicans.

Men also leaned towards Democrats, although the gap was smaller. The 12-point national lead is the widest Democrats have recorded in the current election cycle. However, national polling does not necessarily predict which party will win control of Congress, as the results depend on individual races across states and congressional districts. Republicans continue to have some structural advantages in these contests, despite the Democrats’ strong showing in the national poll.

Iran war and rising petrol prices add to economic concerns Trump’s falling approval rating comes as Americans deal with higher petrol prices following the conflict with Iran. Trump ordered military strikes on Iran in February alongside Israel. The conflict led to a sharp rise in petrol prices, putting further pressure on household budgets. The Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 68% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy.

This includes 37% of people who identify as Republicans. When asked which party would do a better job managing the economy, 40% of voters chose Democrats, while 33% backed Republicans. The online survey collected responses from 1,679 US adults, including 1,279 registered voters. Here’s what it could be worth Democrats expected to win House, Senate race remains close Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress.

They have 218 seats to the Democrats’ 214 in the House of Representatives, while the Senate is divided 53-47 in favour of Republicans. According to Reuters, Democrats need a net gain of four seats in each chamber to take control of both. Democrats are widely expected to win the House, but the Senate contest remains too close to call. The result will determine how much power Democrats could exercise over Trump’s agenda during the final two years of his current term.

Even if Democrats take control of one or both chambers, Trump would retain his veto power and broad executive authority. Senate races could decide control of Congress The Senate map is likely to play a crucial role in deciding the outcome of the midterm elections. Earlier in the election cycle, Fox News reported that Republicans were defending seats in 22 states, compared with 13 states where Democrats were defending their seats.

Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report described the path to a Democratic Senate majority as "herculean". However, the picture has since become more competitive. In a recent update, Cook Political Report shifted its ratings for Georgia, Kansas and South Carolina towards Democrats. The report also listed Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas as toss-up races, meaning neither party had a clear advantage.

Cook had moved Texas and Iowa into the toss-up category in August. Key Senate races remain competitive, with Democrat Jon Ossoff leading in Georgia, while polls in Kansas show Republican Senator Roger Marshall ahead in one survey and tied in another. In Maine, Republican Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term, while North Carolina has an open seat with Democrat Roy Cooper as a prominent candidate. Ohio will hold a special election to fill the remainder of JD Vance’s former term, while Michigan’s open seat has Trump-backed Republican Mike Rogers in the race.

If Democrats win a narrow House majority A Democratic majority of around five to 20 seats would give the party control of House committees and the power to issue subpoenas. This would allow lawmakers to investigate Trump and his administration. However, the investigations could face obstacles. Reuters noted that administration officials might refuse to comply with subpoenas, as a Justice Department loyal to Trump would be unlikely to enforce them.

Trump would continue to exercise his veto power and retain broad authority over tariffs, immigration and foreign policy. Republicans in the Senate would be able to block most Democratic proposals. Democrats could pass bills aimed at sending a political message on healthcare, abortion rights, housing and AI data centres, but few, if any, would become law. Analysts also expect a possible confrontation over the debt limit by the summer of 2027, which could unsettle financial markets.

A larger group of newly elected, more progressive Democrats could also increase calls for Trump’s impeachment. At the same time, some Republicans could become more willing to break with Trump on unpopular issues, including tariffs and the war with Iran. Democrats would have a stronger position in negotiations over government spending and the debt ceiling. They could also pass bills on inflation, limits on Trump's war powers and AI data centres, forcing Senate Republicans to take difficult votes.

However, major policy changes would remain unlikely because Republicans could block the bills in the Senate and Trump could veto legislation that reached his desk. What if the House is Democratic but the Senate is tied? Another possibility is that Democrats win the House while the Senate is split 50-50. In that situation, Republicans would retain control of the Senate because Vance, as vice president, could cast the deciding vote in a tie.

A small group of senators willing to break with their parties could gain significant influence. These could include Democratic Senator John Fetterman and some moderate Republicans. Budget negotiations and disputes over the debt ceiling could become harder to predict, as neither party would be able to afford many defections. Trump would also be expected to secure confirmation of his nominees with Vance's tie-breaking vote.

His policies on tariffs, immigration and foreign affairs would remain largely unchecked by Congress. What if Democrats win both chambers of Congress? A Democratic victory in both the House and Senate would create a stronger check on Trump's administration. The Senate result could be particularly important because the chamber has the power to confirm federal judges, Cabinet members and ambassadors.

The size of the Democratic Senate majority would determine how much the party could achieve. If Democrats win a two-seat Senate majority A narrow Democratic majority of two seats would give the party control of Senate committees and the legislative agenda. Democrats would likely block many of Trump's judicial nominees. They could also try to delay filling any Supreme Court vacancy until after the 2028 presidential election.

Republicans, meanwhile, would likely try to confirm as many nominees as possible before the new Congress takes office in January. However, Democrats would still face major limits. Most legislation in the Senate requires 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, a procedure that allows lawmakers to delay or block a vote. Trump would also retain his presidential veto. If Democrats win a four- to six-seat majority A moderate Democratic majority of four to six seats would give party leaders more freedom to advance their agenda without depending so heavily on individual senators.

Democrats would have a better chance of passing bills on tariffs, AI data centres, healthcare, living costs and presidential war powers. Even if Trump vetoed those bills, the resulting disputes could become major issues in the 2028 presidential campaign. Confirmation of judicial nominees would also be likely to slow sharply. If Democrats win a majority of eight or more seats A Democratic majority of eight or more seats would allow the party to claim a clear electoral mandate and argue that voters had rejected Trump's handling of the first half of his second term.

Democrats would also enter negotiations over government funding and the debt ceiling from a stronger position. What if Republicans retain control of both chambers? If Republicans retain both the House and the Senate, Trump and his party would claim that voters had given them a fresh mandate. The administration would face fewer restrictions from Congress and could continue advancing judicial nominees and other appointments.

The risk of major confrontations over government funding, a shutdown and the debt ceiling would also be lower than under a divided Congress, although such disputes would not necessarily disappear. Even if Democrats win both chambers, the Senate filibuster, Trump's veto power and his ability to use executive orders would limit how much of their agenda they could turn into law. For Trump, the November 3 elections will determine how much freedom he has to pursue his policies during the final two years of his second term. For Democrats, the challenge will be to turn growing voter dissatisfaction into enough seats to put meaningful pressure on the administration.