Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50, Bank Nifty break their three-day losing streak amid range-bound trade?

Overall, the index is likely to trade in the 22,200–23,000 range in the near term. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty may face resistance in the 55,400–55,500 range if it rebounds, followed by the crucial hurdle at 56,000. On the downside, 54,400 is likely to provide immediate support, followed by the critical support zone of 53,800–53,750. Market experts have advised caution amid the prevailing uncertainty.

On October 22, the Nifty 50 fell 124 points, or 0.54 percent, to close at 22,688, while the Bank Nifty declined 51 points, or 0.09 percent, to settle at 54,926. Market breadth remained weak, with 2,347 stocks declining against 891 advancing on the NSE. Nifty Outlook and Strategy Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at Samco Securities Nifty positioning remains cautious, with the India VIX edging up to 15.76.

The Put-Call ratio (PCR) near the spot level stands at 1.05, indicating relatively balanced positioning, while the PCR across all strikes is 0.82, suggesting a higher concentration of Call open interest than Put open interest across the option chain. Maximum pain stands at 22,850, above the spot level. Fresh Put writing was observed in the 22,550–22,650 range, particularly at the 22,600 strike, providing support below the market.

On the upside, Call open interest is highest at 23,000, followed by 23,100 and 22,800, making these key resistance levels. Call positions at the 22,900 and 22,950 strikes were reduced during the session. Overall, Nifty appears range-bound, with support at 22,600 and resistance in the 22,800–22,850 zone. Nifty continues to trade below the middle Bollinger Band at 22,756. The RSI stands at 44, while the MACD remains above its signal line but is losing momentum.

A fall below 22,600 could drag the index lower, while a move above 22,800 would be needed to signal a potential recovery. Until then, the outlook remains cautious. Key Resistance: 22,800, 22,850, 23,000 Key Support: 22,600, 22,500, 22,400 Strategy: Sell Nifty November futures at 22,805, with a stop-loss at 22,925 and a target of 22,680. Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Equity Broking The Nifty 50 extended its decline for the third consecutive session.

On the daily chart, the index formed a Doji candlestick, indicating indecision amid prevailing weakness. It also closed below its 10-day exponential moving average (DEMA), keeping the near-term trend under pressure. The RSI failed to sustain above the midpoint of 50 and slipped below it again, signalling weakening momentum. On the upside, the 23,000–23,200 zone is likely to act as a crucial resistance area, with the 20-day and 50-day DEMAs adding to the overhead pressure.

Derivatives data also indicates a significant concentration of Call open interest around 23,000, suggesting resistance from Call writers. As long as Nifty trades below this zone, the short-term bias is likely to remain sideways to bearish, with downside support in the 22,450–22,200 range. Key Resistance: 23,000, 23,200 Key Support: 22,450, 22,200 Strategy: Sell Nifty October futures on a rise towards the 22,800–22,900 zone, targeting a potential downside move towards 22,450–22,200.

The bearish view remains valid as long as Nifty sustains below the immediate resistance zone. Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at Samco Securities Bank Nifty positioning remains relatively balanced. The PCR stands at 0.95, indicating a slightly higher concentration of Call open interest than Put open interest across the option chain. Maximum pain is at 55,500, well above the spot level.

Fresh Put writing was observed at the 54,500 strike, providing support below the market, while Put open interest at 54,000 also remains substantial. The highest concentration of open interest is at 55,000, where Put and Call open interest are almost equal, making it a key pivot level. Call open interest at 55,500 is significantly higher than Put open interest at the same strike, making it the primary resistance level.

Call positions at the 55,000, 55,500 and 55,600 strikes were reduced during the session. Overall, Bank Nifty appears range-bound, with support at 54,500 and resistance in the 55,000–55,500 zone. Bank Nifty formed a small bullish candle after opening lower. However, the index remains below the middle Bollinger Band at 55,140, while the RSI stands at 43. The MACD remains above its signal line but is losing momentum.

A sustained move above 55,140 would be needed to signal a potential recovery. Conversely, a fall below 54,700 could drag the index lower towards the lower Bollinger Band. Until either level is decisively breached, the outlook remains cautious. Key Resistance: 55,300, 55,450, 55,550 Key Support: 54,650, 54,500, 54,400 Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty November futures at 55,242, with a stop-loss at 55,500 and a target of 54,800.

Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Equity Broking On Wednesday, Bank Nifty broke down from its rising channel pattern, accompanied by a long bearish candlestick on the daily chart, signalling a deterioration in its technical structure. In the latest session on Thursday, the index again closed marginally lower, indicating that buying interest remains limited despite attempts to stabilise at lower levels.

The overall technical setup remains cautious, with the index vulnerable to further downside following the breakdown below the rising channel's trendline support. From a technical perspective, Bank Nifty continues to exhibit weakness, trading below its key daily moving averages. The RSI stands at 43.05, below its average of 43.48, indicating weak momentum and a lack of buying strength. On the hourly chart, 55,600 remains a crucial resistance level where selling pressure is likely to emerge.

As long as the index sustains below this level, the short-term bias is expected to remain sideways to bearish, favouring a sell-on-rallies approach, with downside targets in the 54,400–54,000 range. Key Resistance: 55,200, 55,600 Key Support: 54,400, 54,000 Strategy: Consider selling Bank Nifty October futures on a rise towards the 55,000–55,200 zone, targeting 54,400 and 54,000. The strategy remains valid as long as the index sustains below the key resistance level of 55,600.