Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 surpass its October swing high, Bank Nifty rebound above 55,000?

On the downside, immediate support is placed at 22,800, followed by 22,650. Meanwhile, if the Bank Nifty manages to defend Friday's low, a rally towards the 55,000-55,100 resistance zone cannot be ruled out. The next upside levels to watch would be 55,650 and 56,100. However, a break below Friday's low could expose the index to further downside towards 54,000, according to market experts. On October 30, the Nifty 50 surged 116 points, or 0.51 percent, to close at 23,053, while the Bank Nifty declined 223 points, or 0.41 percent, to settle at 54,687.

Market breadth turned negative, with 2,383 stocks declining against 881 advancing on the NSE. Nifty Outlook and Strategy Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst, VP, Derivatives & Technical Research at Teji Mandi The Nifty 50 held the 22,400-22,500 support zone and rallied more than 700 points to close above the 23,000 mark. On the monthly and weekly charts, the index respected and closed above its 40-month exponential moving average (EMA), placed at 22,803, as well as the rising support trendline drawn by connecting the previous swing lows of 21,743 and 22,182, respectively.

The ability to hold crucial support levels despite global headwinds indicates underlying bullish sentiment. The previous swing high and the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the decline over the previous three months, from 24,774 to 22,180, are placed at 23,170. We expect the Nifty to break above this resistance and move higher towards 23,477, which represents the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the same decline.

The support base has shifted higher from 22,500 to 22,680. Daily and hourly momentum indicators are also aligned, with positive crossovers supporting the bullish price action. On the derivatives front, the maximum Call open interest is concentrated at 23,500, while the maximum Put open interest is placed at 22,000, followed by 22,500. Put writers added open interest at strikes between 22,800 and 23,000, indicating the emergence of support, while Call writers unwound their positions across the same strikes.

Consequently, the Put-Call Ratio (PCR) increased from 1.41 to 1.61. Considering the technical setup and derivatives data, we expect the positive momentum in the Nifty to continue towards 23,400-23,500, with 22,800-22,680 serving as the support base. Key Resistance: 23,400, 23,500 Key Support: 22,800, 22,680 Strategy: Buy Nifty November Futures around 23,053, with a stop-loss at 22,950 and a target of 23,514.

Hitesh Rathi, Technical Analyst (Equity & Derivatives) at Angel One On a weekly basis, the Nifty continues to remain range-bound, extending its sideways movement for the fifth consecutive week. The sharp rebound witnessed last week from the 22,400-22,500 band reinforces the presence of strong demand at lower levels and highlights the significance of the rising trendline on the weekly chart, which has repeatedly acted as a crucial support.

Furthermore, the considerable improvement in overall market breadth and sentiment has helped ease concerns among market participants. That said, stiff overhead resistance continues to make the path towards higher levels challenging. Going forward, unless the index delivers a convincing breakout above the 23,150-23,200 band, caution remains warranted, with traders advised to avoid chasing the upward momentum.

A decisive breakout above this resistance band would mark the formation of the first higher high-higher low structure on the daily chart, signalling a potential shift in the short-term trend. A weekly close above this crucial zone would further confirm the breakout on the weekly time frame. In terms of key levels, immediate support for the index is likely to emerge in the 22,900-22,950 band, followed by a stronger support cushion at 22,800.

On the upside, the 23,100-23,160 range represents an immediate hurdle, followed by stronger resistance in the 23,400-23,450 band. Key Resistance: 23,100, 23,160 Key Support: 22,800, 22,700 Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures near 22,850, with a stop-loss at 22,750 and book profits in the 23,000-23,100 range. Vaishnavi Jagtap, Senior Research Analyst – Technical at Axis Direct The benchmark Nifty 50 extended its short-term range-bound movement for the fifth consecutive week, remaining within the 22,200-23,200 range, with a crucial multi-month support zone at 22,200-22,000.

The index is positioned comfortably above its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), placed at 20,707, indicating a positive short-term bias. This is further supported by positive daily and weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings, which point to improving momentum within the ongoing consolidation phase. Immediate downside support is placed in the 22,700-22,900 range, while a decisive weekly close above 23,200 could trigger a short-term relief rally towards 23,500-23,800.

Key Resistance: 23,200, 23,500 Key Support: 22,900, 22,700 Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips around 23,000, with a stop-loss at 22,850 and a target of 23,200-23,300. Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst, VP, Derivatives & Technical Research at Teji Mandi The Bank Nifty tested the 53,600-53,700 support zone and witnessed buying interest at these levels. Last week, we had anticipated that the downside in the Bank Nifty would be limited to the 53,500-53,700 range.

The index subsequently declined towards 53,700 and rebounded to close the week on a positive note. On the monthly charts, the Bank Nifty formed a Doji candlestick pattern following a 6.89 percent decline in September, suggesting that selling pressure may be exhausting and that the prevailing downtrend could be approaching a reversal. The daily momentum setup also shows a clear positive divergence, along with a fresh bullish crossover, suggesting that the positive price action could continue towards 55,464, its 40-day exponential moving average (EMA).

A further rally could take the index towards 56,065-56,200, where resistance is placed in the form of the previous swing high and a gap area formed on September 24. Key Resistance: 55,800, 56,000 Key Support: 54,000, 53,700 Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty November Futures around 54,800, with a stop-loss at 54,470 and a target of 56,186. Hitesh Rathi, Technical Analyst (Equity & Derivatives) at Angel One From a technical standpoint, the Bank Nifty continues to exhibit underlying weakness, with persistent selling pressure near its 20-day Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) and an ongoing lower high-lower low formation.

This price structure suggests that the broader trend remains fragile despite the recent recovery in the index. On the downside, the 54,000 mark serves as immediate support, followed by the 53,600 zone. A decisive break below these levels could trigger further selling pressure and expose the index to additional downside. Conversely, the 55,500-55,800 range remains a crucial resistance zone, where the index is likely to encounter selling pressure.

A sustained and convincing breakout above this resistance band would be essential to improve the near-term technical outlook. Until such a breakout materialises, traders are advised to maintain a cautious stance and remain mindful of potential downside risks. Key Resistance: 55,500, 55,800 Key Support: 54,000, 53,600 Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures near 54,980, with a stop-loss at 55,200 and book profits near 54,600.

Vaishnavi Jagtap, Senior Research Analyst – Technical at Axis Direct The Bank Nifty continues to trade in a defined downtrend across the daily and weekly time frames, forming a series of lower tops and lower bottoms. The index tested a crucial six-to-eight-month support zone between 53,700 and 53,200 after registering a weekly low of 53,626. Technical weakness remains intact, as the index continues to trade below its key 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).

Immediate short-term support is placed in the 53,800-54,000 range, while a decisive close above 55,200 could trigger a short-term relief rally towards 55,600-55,800. Key Resistance: 55,200, 56,000 Key Support: 54,000, 53,800 Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures above 55,300, with a stop-loss at 54,700 and a target of 55,700-56,000.