Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 hold 22,800, Bank Nifty sustain 54,700 amid bearish market breadth?
If the Nifty 50 falls and sustains below 22,800, further downside toward 22,600–22,500 cannot be ruled out. However, holding above this level could open the door for a recovery toward 23,000.
Amid the extended weakness, crude oil prices hovering around $110 a barrel and a persistently weak broader market structure, the Nifty 50 is unlikely to find strong support from bulls. If the index falls and sustains below 22,800, further downside toward 22,600–22,500 cannot be ruled out. However, holding above this level could open the door for a recovery toward 23,000, with a decisive move above that level potentially paving the way for a rise toward 23,200.
Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty needs to defend Wednesday’s low near 54,700. A break below this level could invite further selling pressure, dragging the index toward 54,400 and then 54,000. On the upside, holding above 54,700 could improve the prospects of a rebound toward 55,300-55,500, followed by the 56,000 zone, according to experts. On October 21, the Nifty 50 declined 78 points, or 0.34 percent, to close at 22,811, while the Bank Nifty plunged 511 points, or 0.92 percent, to settle at 54,977.
Bears continued to dominate market breadth on the National Stock Exchange, with approximately 2,838 stocks declining compared with just 459 advancing stocks. Nifty Outlook and Strategy Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities The benchmark index Nifty witnessed a sharp recovery of nearly 1,000 points from its recent low of 22,180 in just eight trading sessions. However, the recovery lost momentum near the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level, following which the index came under renewed selling pressure and declined sharply over the past two trading sessions.
Amid the recent weakness, Nifty has once again slipped below its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), indicating a deterioration in short-term momentum. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also eased from its recent peak of 52.81. Nevertheless, it continues to hold above its nine-day moving average. Going forward, the 22,950–23,000 zone is likely to act as immediate resistance. As long as Nifty remains below the 23,000 mark, the short-term bias is expected to remain negative, with the index likely to drift towards 22,500 initially, followed by 22,300 in the near term.
Key Resistance: 22,950, 23,000 Key Support: 22,500, 22,300 Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures below 22,700, with a stop-loss of 22,890 and target of 22,450. Vaishali Patel, Deputy Manager - Research-Technical Department at Jainam The Nifty 50 is struggling to sustain higher levels, indicating a cautious technical setup. However, the RSI has remained in bullish territory on the lower time frame despite Wednesday’s decline, suggesting that short-term momentum remains relatively resilient.
The index has formed a bearish candle with shadows on either side, indicating heightened volatility at current levels. Nifty is now trading near its previous resistance zone. If the index manages to sustain itself above this zone, fresh buying interest could emerge, potentially supporting a recovery towards higher levels. Immediate support is placed at 22,800, followed by the 22,600–22,500 zone. A decisive break below 22,800 could intensify selling pressure, dragging the index towards the lower support zone.
On the upside, 23,000–23,200 remains the key resistance zone. A sustained breakout above 23,200–23,300 would be required to strengthen bullish momentum. Key Resistance: 22,900, 23,000 Key Support: 22,700, 22,500 Strategy: Buy Nifty futures above 22,800–22,850, with a stop-loss at 22,570 and a target of 23,150. Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities Nifty faced selling pressure near the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level during the recent mean-reversion rally.
Monday’s developments and Wednesday’s price action indicate weakening momentum, while the possibility of a hidden bearish divergence suggests that the prevailing downtrend could continue. Following the closing auction session (CAS), the index managed to close near its 20-day moving average (DMA), around 22,800. A cautious stance is advisable, with the 22,650–22,700 zone, which coincides with the 200-week moving average (WMA), acting as a crucial support area.
If the index breaks below this zone, positions accumulated during the relief rally should be reviewed or reduced. Immediate resistance is placed at 23,000. Key Resistance: 23,000 Strategy: Buy the Nifty 22,700 Put option (PE) of the October expiry above Rs 160, with a stop-loss at Rs 120 and a target of Rs 210. Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities
The Bank Nifty witnessed a sharp sell-off on Wednesday, declining nearly 1 percent during the session. The index has also broken below an upward-sloping trendline on the daily chart, indicating a deterioration in its short-term price structure. Notably, it underperformed the frontline indices, reflecting relative weakness in the banking sector. Technically, the index is currently trading below all its key moving averages, which are themselves trending lower, highlighting a negative bias.
The daily RSI is hovering around 43 and is on the verge of a bearish crossover, suggesting weakening momentum. Going forward, the 54,500–54,400 zone will act as an important support area. A decisive break below 54,400 could trigger further downside towards 53,700, followed by 53,000 in the short term. On the upside, the 55,400–55,500 zone is likely to act as strong resistance. Key Resistance: 55,400, 55,500
Key Support: 54,500, 54,400, 53,700 Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty futures below 54,900, with a stop-loss at 55,400 and a target of 54,100. Vaishali Patel, Deputy Manager - Research-Technical Department at Jainam Bank Nifty continues to trade below its key moving averages, indicating weakness in the broader technical structure. The index is trading near an important support zone of 54,700–54,500. A decisive break below this range could extend the decline towards 54,000–53,800.
On the upside, 55,000–55,300 represents the immediate resistance zone, followed by 55,500–55,800. A sustained move above 55,800 would be required to improve the short-term outlook. The daily RSI indicates weak momentum, while the MACD remains in negative territory. Oversold readings on shorter time frames may trigger a temporary pullback, but a reversal has not yet been confirmed. The outlook for Bank Nifty remains negative to cautious, with a sell-on-rise bias as long as the index trades below the 55,300–55,800 resistance zone.
Sustaining above 54,500 is important to prevent further downside, while a decisive breakout above 55,800 could support a recovery. Key Resistance: 55,300, 55,500 Key Support: 54,700, 54,500 Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty futures around 55,300–55,400, with a stop-loss at 56,200 and a target of 54,400.
