The week ahead in numbers: Jio’s mega IPO, forex reserves, Q2 earnings report

India’s foreign-exchange reserve data will show whether the sharp early-October decline continued amid pressure on the rupee and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervention. RBI’s policy minutes will explain its shift to a calibrated tightening stance as inflationary pressures build and economists anticipate further rate hikes. September-quarter earnings will offer clues on demand and profit margins amid uneven spending and cost pressures.

China’s third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data will test whether recent stimulus can revive growth after weak domestic demand weighed on the previous quarter. The long-awaited Jio Platforms IPO opens for subscription on Wednesday, aiming to raise ₹30,213 crore and set a benchmark for becoming India’s largest public offering to date. Priced between ₹1,065 and ₹1,119 per share, the issue values the digital and telecom giant at roughly ₹10.3 trillion, surpassing Hyundai Motor India’s ₹27,857 crore debut in 2024.

Crucially, Jio’s offering consists entirely of fresh shares, meaning all the capital raised flows directly into the company’s bank balance rather than paying off existing investors. The bulk of these funds—about ₹27,500 crore—will be used to repay existing loans, significantly reducing Jio's annual interest burden and boosting future profitability. This stands out from recent mega-IPOs such as Hyundai, Paytm, and Swiggy, which relied heavily on existing shareholders selling off their stakes.

Anchor investors get their first look on Monday, while everyday retail buyers can bid through Friday, 23 October, with a special ₹2,500 crore quota set aside specifically for current Reliance Industries shareholders before the stock lists on 28 October. India’s forex reserves are under pressure yet again after a brief recovery in the past few months, as the central bank sells dollars to curb the rupee’s continuous decline.

Reserves had fallen to $666.9 billion in late June amid currency pressure, before rebounding to a high of $785.7 billion in early September following foreign-currency inflows through an RBI deposit scheme. However, the recovery proved short-lived as the reserves fell to $734.6 billion by the week ended 2 October, with dollar sales and changes in the value of foreign assets and gold contributing to the decline.

The next round of reserves data, due on Friday, will indicate whether the drawdown continued as RBI stepped up efforts to support the rupee. In October, it began supplying dollars directly to state-run oil companies and tightened rules on some foreign-exchange transactions to reduce demand in the currency market. The figures will offer an early indication of how reserves are moving amid these measures, elevated oil prices and foreign investor outflows.

However, it is still early to establish how much of a change will be caused by RBI’s interventions. RBI will release the minutes of the monetary policy committee’s (MPC) meeting on 21 October, offering insights into members’ views on inflation risks and the prospect of further rate hikes. At its October meeting, the MPC unanimously raised the repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.5%, but its decision to shift from a neutral to a calibrated tightening stance was split 4-2.

The minutes will offer an insight into why two members favoured retaining the neutral stance and how the committee weighed inflation against growth. RBI last adopted calibrated tightening eight years ago under Urjit Patel, amid inflationary pressures. It shifted to an accommodative stance in June 2019 as inflation eased and growth slowed, retaining it until March 2022. Inflationary pressures have now broadened again amid weather risks, including El Niño, and geopolitical tensions from the West Asia war.

RBI raised its FY27 inflation forecast to 5.2% from 5% and its real GDP growth forecast to 7.1% from 6.7%. It expects inflation to reach 6% in the December quarter and 5.7% in the March quarter. Economists expect another rate hike in December, making the minutes key to gauging the case for further tightening. Markets will track a busy week of September-quarter earnings, with results from lenders, IT firms, cement makers and energy companies offering clues on demand and profit margins.

In the financial sector, Bajaj Finance’s performance will be watched for sustained growth in assets under management (AUM), retail credit demand and asset quality. IndusInd Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank will offer a broader read on loan and deposit growth, margins and bad-loan trends. The IT index will closely track the results of industry heavyweight Infosys, which faces scrutiny over its FY27 revenue growth guidance of 1.5-3%, with investors looking for signs of improving client spending, stronger deal wins and stable margins.

Meanwhile, UltraTech Cement’s sales volumes and pricing will help gauge demand, while higher fuel costs could weigh on margins amid the West Asia war. In energy, Adani Green Energy’s capacity additions and power sales will show whether expansion is translating into revenue growth. Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd's (HPCL) results will be assessed for refining and fuel-marketing margins, while Adani Power and Adani Energy Solutions will offer cues on electricity demand, project execution and capital spending.

China’s third-quarter GDP data, due on Monday, will test whether the world’s second-largest economy can regain momentum after growth slowed to 4.3% in April-June, its weakest pace in more than three years. A modest recovery is expected, supported by recent stimulus, but growth remains close to the lower end of Beijing’s 4.5-5% target for 2026. The bigger concern is the imbalance between strong exports and weak domestic demand.

In the previous quarter, final consumption contributed 45.2% of GDP growth, while net exports accounted for 20.8%. September exports surged, but subdued household spending, weak private investment and the prolonged property slump continue to constrain activity. Beijing has introduced targeted rate cuts and mortgage subsidies, and allocated 550 billion yuan in unused government debt quotas to support local governments and infrastructure.

The data will indicate whether these measures are translating into stronger demand and investment. Last week, the International Monetary Fund also cut China’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.5% from 4.6% in its April outlook, citing weak domestic demand. Alongside GDP, China will release September retail sales, industrial production and investment data.