SBI Q2 Results Preview: PATmay rise up to 25% YoY; NII, margins, deposit growth in focus

The bank's Central Board will meet in Mumbai to consider the financial results.Brokerage estimates indicate that NII could range between Rs 47,850 crore and Rs 48,562.5 crore. PAT estimates, meanwhile, range from Rs 20,378 crore to Rs 25,250 crore, reflecting differing expectations on operating performance and provisions.Net interest margins (NIMs), deposit mobilisation, loan growth, credit costs and asset quality are likely to remain key monitorables.

Sequential growth estimates range between 1.8% and 3.3%.Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) expects NII to rise 11.3% YoY to Rs 47,850 crore, compared with Rs 46,990 crore in the June quarter, translating into 1.8% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) growth.Dolat Capital estimates NII at Rs 48,020 crore, up 12% YoY and 2% QoQ.JM Financial is more optimistic, projecting NII at Rs 48,562.5 crore, an increase of 13% YoY and 3.3% sequentially.The brokerage estimates suggest that SBI's NII growth could remain in double digits, although the extent of sequential expansion varies across projections.Margins likely to remain under pressureNet interest margins are expected to moderate sequentially in Q2FY27, with brokerage estimates pointing to a decline of 3-5 basis points (bps) QoQ.MOFSL expects NIMs to decline 3 bps sequentially to 2.83%.

It attributes the relatively limited moderation to a lower quantum of foreign currency non-resident (bank) [FCNR(B)] deposits mobilised as a proportion of total deposits.Dolat Capital estimates NIM at 2.81%, down 5 bps QoQ and 16 bps YoY.The movement in margins will be closely watched alongside loan and deposit growth. The quantum of FCNR(B) deposits mobilised and its contribution to the bank's deposit base will also be important monitorables.Deposit mobilisation and loan growth in focusDeposit mobilisation will remain a key monitorable as SBI seeks to support advances growth while managing funding costs.MOFSL expects deposits to grow 4.4% QoQ to Rs 62.7 lakh crore, while loans are projected to increase 3.8% sequentially to Rs 51.8 lakh crore.The brokerage expects credit growth to be broad-based, led by small and medium enterprises (SME), corporate, agricultural and Xpress Credit segments.JM Financial estimates deposits at Rs 62.76 lakh crore, up 12.2% YoY and 4.5% QoQ.

It projects loans at Rs 52.67 lakh crore, an increase of 20.7% YoY and 5.5% sequentially.MOFSL's estimates indicate deposit growth of 12.1% YoY and loan growth of 18.9% YoY.The pace of deposit mobilisation and advances growth will be important in assessing the bank's ability to sustain credit expansion.Profit growth estimates vary across brokeragesDespite expectations of steady NII growth, brokerage estimates for operating profitability and PAT differ, reflecting varying projections for income, operating expenses and provisions.JM Financial expects SBI to report PAT of Rs 20,378 crore, up 1.1% YoY.

It estimates pre-provision operating profit (PPoP) at Rs 32,307.6 crore, an increase of 1.3% YoY. Sequentially, it expects PPoP and PAT to decline 3.6% and 3.5%, respectively.Dolat Capital projects PAT at Rs 23,760 crore, up 18% YoY and 13% QoQ. It expects pre-provision profit at Rs 36,590 crore, an increase of 15% YoY and 9% sequentially.MOFSL is the most optimistic on PAT growth, estimating net profit at Rs 25,250 crore, up 25.2% YoY and 19.6% QoQ.

It expects operating profit to rise 37.9% YoY to Rs 37,650 crore.The differences in brokerage estimates make operating profitability, other income, expenses and provisions important factors to track in the quarterly results.Asset quality and credit costs remain key monitorablesAsset quality is expected to remain broadly stable, with investors likely to track gross non-performing assets (GNPA), net non-performing assets (NNPA) and credit costs.MOFSL expects SBI's GNPA ratio to moderate to 1.4% in Q2FY27 from 1.5% in Q1FY27.

It expects NNPA to remain at 0.4%.The brokerage estimates the provision coverage ratio (PCR) at 74.3%, compared with 74.2% in the June quarter.Dolat Capital expects credit costs at 45 bps, up 4 bps QoQ but down 5 bps YoY.MOFSL expects credit costs to remain steady and the return on assets (RoA) trajectory to remain stable, excluding one-off items.The movement in asset quality indicators and credit costs will offer further clues on the health of the bank's loan book and the potential impact of provisioning on profitability.Management commentary, provisioning buffers in focusBeyond the headline numbers, investors will look for clarity on loan growth, deposit mobilisation, NIMs, credit costs and the outlook for asset quality.MOFSL expects provisioning buffers could be strengthened with gains from the sale of stakes in SBI Mutual Fund and the National Stock Exchange (NSE).The brokerage has a Buy rating on SBI with a target price of Rs 1,300.

It has raised its FY27 earnings per share (EPS) estimate by 4% while cutting its FY28 estimate by 1%.Meanwhile, SBI shares were seen trading at Rs 978.80 apiece, higher by 1.85% from the previous close of Rs 961 per share on the BSE on Monday, November 2.The bank's commentary on deposit mobilisation, FCNR(B) inflows, credit growth and provisioning buffers will therefore be important in assessing its earnings outlook.Disclosure: This article has been written by Kumar Gaurav, who is not a Sebi-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser.

Gaurav and their ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective Sebi-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution.

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