Reliance Industries Q2 results: Profit may top Rs 21,000 crore as refining, Jio drive earnings

Analysts expect Reliance's oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business to be the principal earnings driver, benefiting from elevated refining cracks, while Jio's subscriber additions and improving average revenue per user (ARPU) are likely to support growth in digital services. According to Bloomberg consensus estimates, Reliance Industries' O2C business is expected to generate revenue of Rs 1.62 lakh crore and EBITDA of Rs 16,434 crore in the fiscal second quarter.

The digital services business is projected to report revenue of Rs 41,213 crore and EBITDA of Rs 18,848 crore, while the retail segment is expected to generate revenue of Rs 91,966 crore and EBITDA of Rs 6,593 crore. The oil and gas business is estimated to report revenue of Rs 5,699 crore and EBITDA of Rs 4,536 crore. Prabhudas Lilladher expects Reliance's consolidated EBITDA to rise 3.4 percent sequentially to Rs 49,140 crore.

Kotak Securities projects a 15 percent year-on-year increase in consolidated EBITDA, while Nuvama expects growth of 17 percent. Reliance's O2C segment is expected to benefit from elevated refining margins amid tight global product supplies and geopolitical tensions in the Gulf. According to Prabhudas Lilladher, Brent crude averaged $91.4 per barrel during Q2 FY27 after surging in September amid renewed US-Iran tensions.

Refining cracks remained elevated, particularly for diesel and aviation turbine fuel. Kotak Securities expects O2C EBITDA to rise 47 percent year-on-year, supported by strong earnings from Reliance's special economic zone refinery, which benefits from an exemption from the special additional excise duty, or windfall tax. The brokerage also expects cheaper US ethane-based petrochemical feedstocks and a weaker rupee to support the segment's profitability.

Nuvama projects O2C EBITDA growth of 38 percent year-on-year, although higher freight costs and operational adjustments could partly offset the gains. Reliance Jio is expected to maintain its earnings growth momentum, supported by subscriber additions and higher average revenue per user. Yes Securities estimates Jio's ARPU at Rs 216.5 for the quarter, with its subscriber base reaching approximately 540.3 million.

Prabhudas Lilladher expects ARPU to increase around 1 percent sequentially to Rs 218, supported by the addition of approximately eight million subscribers during the quarter. The brokerage projects a 3 percent sequential increase in Jio's EBITDA, while Nuvama expects digital services EBITDA to grow 16 percent year-on-year. Reliance Retail is expected to deliver steady operating earnings, although analysts differ on the pace of revenue growth.

Yes Securities projects retail revenue of Rs 92,700 crore, representing growth of 2.4 percent year-on-year and 2.6 percent sequentially, with an EBITDA margin of around 7 percent. Meanwhile, Kotak Securities expects retail revenue to grow 11.7 percent year-on-year but projects a 0.8 percent decline in segment EBITDA, reflecting pressure on operating margins. Nuvama also expects retail EBITDA to decline approximately 1 percent year-on-year because of a higher comparison base.

Reliance's upstream oil and gas business could weigh on overall earnings growth, with analysts anticipating lower production. Kotak Securities expects the segment's EBITDA to decline 7.2 percent year-on-year, while Nuvama projects a 6 percent fall. Investors will also watch management's commentary on production trends, crude prices and gas realisations. Apart from earnings, investors will focus on refining margins, the contribution from the O2C segment, Jio's ARPU and subscriber growth, and Reliance Retail's profitability.

The company's capital expenditure, finance costs, and management commentary on the outlook for its major businesses will also signal earnings momentum in the coming quarters.