Quick commerce tests its economics beyond metros

Its parent Eternal expects the quick-commerce network to cross 3,500 dark stores by March 2027 and reach about 5,000 by March 2028, against 2,751 at the end of September. A large part of the next 2,250 stores will be in smaller cities, Chief Financial Officer Akshant Goyal said during the company’s earnings call. Blinkit added 308 stores in the September quarter, against 200 in the previous quarter.

Flipkart Minutes operates around 1,200 stores across more than 150 cities, and its customer base in tier-2 and smaller cities grew nearly 25 times in the year to September. It plans to reach 1,500 stores by the end of 2026. The expansion suggests that smaller markets are becoming an important frontier for quick commerce, but the ability to attract customers is only the first part of the equation. Blinkit’s early numbers offer grounds for optimism.

According to Eternal’s shareholders’ letter, new stores in smaller cities reach around 1,000 orders a day in a similar time as those in metros. Net average order values are 85-90% of metro levels, while customer retention is comparable. The share of gross order value contributed by the top eight cities, which earlier accounted for around 70%, is also declining. But order volumes do not necessarily translate into comparable margins.

Emkay Global had estimated earlier this year that a dark store in a tier-2 town needs around 800 orders a day to break even, against about 1,300 in a metro. Lower rents and wages can help offset smaller baskets, but delivery costs, inventory turnover and the pace at which a store builds demand will determine whether the savings are sufficient. Neither Blinkit nor Swiggy’s Instamart has disclosed these metrics by city.

The uncertainty is reflected in the cost of expansion. Eternal expects gross order value per store per day, currently around Rs 9 lakh, to rise towards Rs 11 lakh over time, even as its network nearly doubles. Its estimated capital expenditure of Rs 2.5 crore per store already factors in a greater proportion of tier-2 locations. However, CLSA cut its FY27-FY29 profit estimates by 38-78%, citing faster expansion and higher marketing costs.

Swiggy added 69 stores in the September quarter, taking its network to 1,240 across 133 cities, but CEO Nandita Sinha said it was not looking to expand beyond its existing footprint. Instead, it opens stores where demand outgrows capacity, typically starting the process when an existing store crosses 2,000 daily orders. Orders per store per day rose 9.5% to 1,192 in the September quarter. The contrast captures the industry's strategic choice: enter smaller markets early and build customer loyalty, as Blinkit is attempting, or concentrate on markets where demand is already established.

The real test will be whether smaller-city stores can sustain repeat orders and efficient delivery and inventory operations without prolonged discounts.