Power stock to buy: Despite almost 20% fall in 1 month, Deven Choksey Research sees 72% returns ahead - Do you own?

Despite nearly falling 20% in the last 1 month, domestic brokerage house Deven Choksey Research has initiated coverage on Siemens Energy India with a Buy rating and a target price of ₹4,554, implying a potential upside of 72% from the last closing price of ₹2,649.The report said, “We assign multiple of 60x PE on FY28 EPS of 75.90 and arrive at TP of INR 4,554, implying 41% upside on Siemens Energy India Ltd.

We have not factored HVDC into our TP, while new HVDC VSC orders and nuclear energy provide additional upside optionality.”The brokerage expects the power equipment maker to benefit from India's multi-year transmission investment cycle, rising electricity demand, renewable energy integration and expansion in high-voltage grid infrastructure.It highlighted the company's position in high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission, grid-stabilisation solutions, power generation equipment and engineering services.

Its strong parentage through Siemens Energy Germany and opportunities in exports could further support growth.Deven Choksey Research said, “We view Siemens Energy India as a high-potential play on the country’s power transmission and generation opportunity, with a diversified business model spanning grid infrastructure, power generation, services and engineering, research & development (ER&D).”Stock Price TrendThe stock ended 4.4% lower at ₹2,649 on Friday, October 23.

It has been under pressure in recent times. The power stock has declined around 10% in 1 week, nearly 20% in 1 month, and 3 months. Meanwhile, it has lost 15% in the last 1 year.It hit its 52-week high of ₹3,966.80 in May 2026 and its 52-week low of ₹2105.15 in January 2026.Why Deven Choksey Research is bullish on Siemens Energy IndiaThe brokerage's investment thesis centres on rising transmission expenditure as India expands renewable energy capacity and strengthens its electricity grid.According to the report, the Central Electricity Authority's roadmap for 900 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity implies transmission capital expenditure of around ₹7.93 lakh crore between FY26 and FY36.

An estimated ₹5-6 lakh crore of transmission investment over the next five years could provide sustained demand for transformers, switchgear, substations and grid-stabilisation equipment.Moreover, Siemens Energy India is among three players in the domestic market with HVDC capabilities and has an estimated 30% share of the segment. The report expects India's voltage-source converter HVDC (VSC-HVDC) market to grow at 15-18% annually through 2030.

The company also has more than 50% market share in India's STATCOM segment, which supports grid stability as renewable power generation increases.The generation business offers additional opportunities. The company has an estimated 55% market share in steam turbines and around 25% of India's gas-turbine fleet. Deven Choksey Research also highlighted the company's manufacturing expansion and export opportunities.

Siemens Energy India plans to increase transformer capacity from 15 GVA to 60 GVA by 2030-32, strengthening its ability to serve domestic transmission projects and international markets.The brokerage said, “We believe Siemens Energy India offers a differentiated combination of structural domestic power-sector growth, exposure to higher-value transmission technologies, recurring generation services, increasing export opportunities and strong global parentage.”Siemens Energy India share price target: Revenue, profit estimates and valuationDeven Choksey Research expects Siemens Energy India to deliver revenue, EBITDA and profit after tax (PAT) compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) of 25%, 33% and 35%, respectively, over the next three years.

The brokerage expects revenue to rise from ₹78,267 million in FY26 estimates to ₹1,54,529 million in FY28 estimates, driven by order inflows across power transmission and generation.The order book stood at ₹193 billion as of Q3FY26 and is projected to increase to ₹271 billion by FY28, implying a CAGR of around 19%. The existing order book provides approximately twice the revenue visibility, according to the report.For valuation, Deven Choksey Research has applied a price-to-earnings multiple of 60 times to its FY28 earnings per share estimate of ₹75.90 to arrive at the target price of ₹4,554.

The brokerage noted that the stock was trading at around 43 times FY28 estimated earnings, compared with approximately 60 times for peers.However, the brokerage cautioned that commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, delays in transmission expenditure, project execution risks, working-capital requirements and competitive pricing pressure could affect growth and profitability.Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.