Passive funds could buy up to Rs 36,500 crore upon Jio Platforms' entry into Nifty, Sensex

The passive buying could be spread over a period of 11 to 14 months, said the analysts cited. The Nifty 50 index is reshuffled twice every year, based on six-month data ending January 31 and July 31. The changes to the index are then made in March and September. To decide the stocks that enter the Nifty 50 index, NSE looks at the average free-float market capitalisation for the past six months. At the close of trading on October 29, Jio Platforms' total market capitalisation was Rs 13.1 lakh crore.

Its free-float m-cap is Rs 28,524 crore, according to the National Stock Exchange. During the listing process,  3% of the company's shares have been made publicly available to trade. Around 32.5% of the firm's shareholding falls under Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), as a result of long-term investments from Google, Meta, General Atlantic and others. However, the lock-in on these will expire by April 2027.

According to Mannat Gandhi – Database Analyst, PL Capital, April 2027 could be an important period for potential stake sales, with around 299.78 crore pre-IPO shares (32.5% of the equity capital) coming out of lock-in. Meta, Google, PE investors’ holding set to be free float by April ‘27 By April 2027, stakes held by financial investors such as PIF, Silver Lake and KKR are expected to count as free float, according to analysts.

This would lift the free float to around 18.3%. Further if the holdings of Meta and Google are also treated as free float, then it arises to around 35.5%. As a result of this, the potential weight in the Nifty 50 index, based on a share price of Rs 1,480 per share and a subsequent free-float market capitalisation of Rs 4.8 lakh crore, would be 4.2% in the Nifty 50. If included in the Sensex, it would be 4.9%.

The Sensex weight is higher because the index has 30 stocks and a smaller total value. In comparison, the latest Nifty 50 entrants, BSE and InterGlobe Aviation, have a free-float market-cap of Rs 1.42 lakh crore and 1.05 lakh crore, respectively. "Additionally, around 7.25 crore anchor shares (0.8%) will unlock between November 2026 and January 2027, taking the total unlocks to approximately 307 crore shares (33.3%)," Gandhi said.

Gandhi further added that if the stock sees a good upside and market conditions remain favourable, existing investors may look to sell around 1-2% stake. "However, this will largely depend on the stock's performance and investors' willingness to sell. Any such stake sale could also help improve the free float and liquidity." Derivatives eligibility According to the regulations, only stocks that are included in the derivatives segment, meaning F&O contracts are available to trade on these counters, can join the Nifty 50.

Gandhi suggested that Jio Platforms could potentially enter the F&O segment by June–July 2027. Given its market capitalisation of over Rs 13 lakh crore, the company is well-positioned on size-related parameters. "With its six-month trading history completing around April 2027, inclusion could follow in the subsequent months, subject to meeting the other eligibility criteria and regulatory approval," she added.

Jio Platforms' index inclusion "September 2027 could be the earliest potential window for Jio Platforms' inclusion in the Nifty 50, provided it becomes F&O eligible ahead of the index review," said Gandhi. Fund managers also believe that large open-market selling following the lock-in expiry is unlikely. On that view, index-driven buying could become a strong tailwind for the stock. A rerating could follow if Jio’s AI and enterprise businesses justify its premium to Airtel even after the lock-in shares become tradeable.