Metals brace for US payrolls and tech earnings as crude tracks geopolitical risk
The US midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3 are likely to influence expectations for fiscal and energy policy, as well as Washington’s stance towards Iran, with direct implications for crude oil.
Doubts over AI spending triggered a rout in technology stocks and broad deleveraging across asset classes this week ended October 30, weighing on the dollar and metals, while crude oil extended gains towards six-month highs on elevated Gulf and Iran escalation risk. The dollar index closed with modest gains as elevated oil prices, stronger-than-expected US GDP growth and a hotter inflation print kept the path open for another Fed rate hike this year.
Still, greenback stayed below 102, as gains in the yen and euro and lower Treasury yields capped the greenback. The 10–2 vote suggests that views within the FOMC remain divided, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s indication that future decisions will depend on incoming data has increased the importance of each economic release. Wall Street's weakness came as disappointing technology earnings and concerns over returns on AI-related capital expenditure prompted investors to reduce exposure.
The Dow Jones and S&P 500 declined approximately 1 percent over the week, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell around 2.4 percent and remained nearly 8 percent below its October 6 peak. Precious metals were also caught in the broad deleveraging. Spot Gold declined about 3 percent to close at $3,875 an ounce, its lowest level since October 2025 and roughly 30 percent below the January record of $5,595, with price action consistent with concerns over the sustainability of AI-related investment and a sharp selloff in technology stocks raised the risk of investors liquidating precious metals positions to cover losses elsewhere.
Gold and silver posted monthly declines of 7 percent and 19 percent, respectively. Silver underperformed, falling 9 percent to $49 an ounce and breaking below $50 for the first time in 11 months, reflecting its greater sensitivity to industrial demand and growth concerns. The gold to silver ratio rose to approximately 79, an 11-month high. Elevated oil prices reinforced the downside by sustaining expectations of tighter monetary policy.
Gold & Silver Rates Yesterday Saturday, 31st October, 2026 Gold Rate in Mumbai Yesterday Saturday, 31st October, 2026 Silver Rate in Mumbai Yesterday Silver's prevailing bearish trend has resumed following a brief four-session consolidation, with prices witnessing a sharp breakdown. Trading below both the 20-day EMA and Supertrend (7,3) continues to reinforce the negative outlook. Immediate support is placed at Rs 1,72,000 per kg, followed by Rs 1,65,800, while the earlier consolidation zone of Rs 1,91,500–1,94,450 is likely to act as resistance on any recovery.
The overall technical bias remains bearish. Crude oil ended October near six-month highs, with the expiring December Brent contract at approximately $117.8 per barrel, January Brent above $113 and WTI approaching $104, as the geopolitical risk premium increased amid reports that the Trump administration is considering military options against Iran. Both benchmarks gained more than 12 percent during the month, with the prospect of renewed strikes following the November 3 midterm elections and regional contingency preparations heightening concerns over potential disruptions to Gulf production, Saudi energy infrastructure and shipping routes.
With global inventories relatively tight, near-term risks remain skewed to the upside. Brent could move above $120 in the event of a confirmed disruption to Saudi production or exports, while a credible diplomatic breakthrough could remove a significant portion of the geopolitical premium and pull prices below $105. Base metals also came under pressure as weaker risk appetite and uncertainty surrounding AI-related investment affected the demand outlook.
LME copper fell below $14,150 per tonne and recorded its first monthly decline since June. However, the correction was moderated by signs of physical tightness, including elevated Chinese import premiums and continued shipments into US warehouses. Zinc led gains with a rise of 2.6 percent to near $3,850 on falling inventories outside China. Aluminium closed 0.9 percent higher near $3,070 and lead was flat close to $1,910.
The coming week presents a particularly heavy event calendar. Final PMI readings from major economies and a series of FOMC speeches will be monitored for further policy guidance. The US midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3 are likely to influence expectations for fiscal and energy policy, as well as Washington’s stance towards Iran, with direct implications for crude oil. Friday's US employment report remains the principal macroeconomic release, given the Fed's emphasis on incoming data.
Strong payroll growth accompanied by firm wages would reinforce expectations of a December rate hike, support the dollar and maintain pressure on gold and silver. A softer outcome could moderate tightening expectations and provide some relief to precious metals. Remaining technology earnings will be critical, as weaker expectations for technology investment and data-centre spending could trigger further unwinding, weighing on bullion and leaving copper vulnerable to a break below $14,000.
