MCX shares rise 2.5% as Jefferies says 'Buy', sees up to 32% upside

"MCX's share price is down 12% over last month, consistent with gold price correction. This provides a good opportunity to BUY considering bullion is only 40% of transaction revenue vs 60% from energy, where Sep-Oct'26 ADTO (average daily turnover) is ahead of estimates," said Jefferies. If this pace holds through the third quarter, it could lift MCX's FY27 net profit estimates by 4–5%, Jefferies said.

The brokerage called the stock a hedge against crude volatility unlike global peers and said it trades at 36x FY28e EPS with 26% 3-year EPS CAGR. At 11:35 am on October 26, MCX shares were trading 2.5% higher at Rs 3,094.6 apiece. Gold edged higher on Monday as softer oil prices tempered inflation concerns, while investors awaited the Federal Reserve's policy decision later this week. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,010.51 per ounce by 0544 GMT, after hitting its lowest level since mid-July in the previous session.

Bullion posted a 4% weekly fall on Friday, its steepest weekly decline since June. US gold futures for December delivery gained 0.4% to $4,024.00. Gold prices on Monday rose by Rs 817 to Rs 1,42,841 per 10 grams in futures trade as speculators created fresh positions on firm spot demand. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, the yellow metal contract for December delivery traded higher by Rs 817, or 0.58 per cent, at Rs 1,42,841 per 10 grams in a business turnover of 811 lots.

"The jump that we've seen is mostly symptomatic of the kind of relief provided by a lower oil price, but one that could easily be capped as markets position for the FOMC decision in a couple of days' time," Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, told Reuters. "Gold will continue to trade as a function of interest rate expectations and geopolitical risks." Oil prices fell on Monday after surging to near six-month highs last week, amid hopes of easing hostilities between the United States and Iran, although ongoing attacks on Saudi Arabia by Yemen's Houthis kept supply concerns in focus.

Qatari mediators were in Tehran on Sunday to help de-escalate regional tensions in coordination with the United States, an official briefed on the situation told Reuters. Markets await the Fed's policy meeting on October 27-28.