El Nino conditions to persist till March 2027: IMD

The latest Monsoon Mission couple Forecast System and other global climate model forecasts indicate that very strong El Nino conditions are likely during November-December 2026,” the IMD statement said. The World Meteorological Organization last month had stated that El Nino conditions are set to peak towards the end of the year and the effects of the phenomenon would be felt even in 2027. IMD also stated that the IOD, which supports rains, has currently exceeded the positive IOD threshold (+0.4 °C).

“Sustained values above this threshold are required before an event is considered established,” Mohapatra said. Due to impact of El Nino, the rainfall during the monsoon season from June 1 to September 30 was 12.6% below the long-period average, placing it in the “deficient” category. The shortfall was the worst since 2015, when precipitation was 12.7% below the benchmark. In October, rainfall across the country was ‘below normal’ at 31.4% below the benchmark — long period average, the met department stated.

For November, the met office has forecast ‘below normal’ rainfall for the South Peninsular India, below the 77% of benchmark. “Below-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country except for some areas in central, northwest and Northeast India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely during November,” IMD stated. El Niño, according to weather scientists, refers to the abnormal warming of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean. It adversely impacts monsoon rainfall, spikes temperatures and causes heat waves in many parts of the world, including the Indian subcontinent.