Dalal Street Week Ahead: Jio IPO, Q2 earnings, China GDP, oil prices, PMI flash numbers among 10 key factors to watch

Going forward, in the truncated trading week beginning October 19, the market is expected to witness a gradual recovery accompanied by consolidation. Investors will focus on the September-quarter earnings season (Q2FY27), the Jio Platforms IPO, China's GDP data, crude oil prices, and flash Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, according to market experts. The Nifty 50 surged 626 points, or 2.78 percent, to close at 23,146, while the BSE Sensex rallied 2,257 points, or 3.11 percent, to end at 74,729.

However, broader markets underperformed the frontline indices, with the Nifty Midcap 100 rising 0.58 percent and the Nifty Smallcap 100 declining 0.12 percent. Among sectors, the Nifty IT index emerged as the standout performer, surging 11.72 percent during the week on the back of robust earnings and upbeat management commentary. Banking, automobile, metal, and oil and gas stocks also witnessed buying interest.

Conversely, healthcare, pharmaceutical, and FMCG stocks came under pressure. "The market is expected to consolidate with a gradual recovery, although intermittent volatility may persist in broader markets," said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Stock-specific activity is likely to intensify as the Q2FY27 earnings season gathers pace. Key factors to watch include crude oil prices, foreign institutional investor (FII) flows, the rupee's movement, and quarterly earnings, he added.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, the sustainability of the market recovery will depend on earnings growth broadening beyond the IT sector, with revenue growth and margin performance across financials, consumption, and industrials remaining under scrutiny. On the economic data front, India's October flash PMI readings will provide insights into domestic demand momentum, while US jobless claims and Japan's inflation data will influence global interest rate expectations, he said.

With inflation remaining elevated and the policy bias tilted towards tightening, the market is likely to remain selective and driven by corporate earnings, he added. The market will remain closed on October 20 on account of Dussehra. Here are 10 key factors to watch next week: The Q2FY27 earnings season will gather further pace next week as more than 200 companies will release their quarterly results scorecard including prominent Nifty 50 names like Bajaj Finance, UltraTech Cement, Eternal, Dr Reddys Laboratories, Infosys, JSW Steel, Shriram Finance, and Kotak Mahindra Bank.

Among non-Nifty 50 names, Swiggy, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, Elevate Campuses, Hindustan Zinc, L&T Technology Services, Piramal Finance, Sobha, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC, Adani Green Energy, Aye Finance, Indian Hotels Company, Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services, Vishal Mega Mart, Adani Energy Solutions, BlueStone Jewellery and Lifestyle, Colgate Palmolive, Havells India, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, Nippon Life India Asset Management, Adani Power, Bank of India, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Coforge, CSB Bank, Godrej Properties, Jindal Steel, SBI Funds Management, Shree Cement, Torrent Pharmaceuticals, and IDFC First Bank will also release their earnings next week.

Apart from corporate earnings, market participants will also focus on the primary market, with Reliance Industries' subsidiary Jio Platforms set to launch what is expected to be the country's biggest IPO on October 21. The company, which operates the technology platform of billionaire Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries, plans to raise Rs 30,187.6 crore through the IPO, comprising an entirely fresh issue of 27 crore equity shares.

The price band has been fixed at Rs 1,065–1,119 per share. Jio Platforms is seeking a valuation of around Rs 10.3 lakh crore. It plans to use Rs 27,500 crore of the IPO proceeds, excluding issue expenses, to repay debt taken on by its material subsidiary, Reliance Jio Infocomm. The remaining proceeds will be allocated for general corporate purposes. Meanwhile, Gurugram-based hospital chain Paras Healthcare will also open its Rs 1,450-crore IPO on October 21.

The public issue comprises a fresh issue of shares worth Rs 500 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) of Rs 650 crore by existing shareholders. The price band has been set at Rs 660–693 per share. Additionally, four mainboard IPOs—Zetwerk Manufacturing Business, Sahajanand Medical Technologies, Bonfiglioli Transmissions, and Tonbo Imaging India—along with the SME-segment IPO of Shellz India, will close for subscription on October 19.

These companies are scheduled to make their stock market debuts on October 23. HD Fire Protect and Vaibhav Vyapaar are scheduled to list their shares on October 21, followed by Fusion CX and Ravita Engineering Services on October 22. Globally, market participants across asset classes will closely monitor China's GDP growth figures, along with industrial production and retail sales data for September.

Economists expect the Chinese economy to register moderate growth in the quarter ended September 2026 (Q3 2026), compared with 4.3 percent growth in the previous quarter. Stronger-than-expected readings could reinforce confidence in recent stimulus measures and support industrial metals, while weaker figures could deepen concerns about underlying demand, said Kaynat Chinawala of Kotak Securities. 4) Global Economic Data

Beyond China's economic data, investors will also track flash manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings from major economies, including the US, Japan, and Europe. In the US, housing starts, pending home sales, and weekly labour market data will also be in focus, alongside Japan's inflation figures. Market participants will also keep a close watch on crude oil prices, which have remained elevated.

High oil prices are a major concern for oil-importing countries such as India and raise questions about the sustainability of the equity market's uptrend, given the potential inflationary pressures and implications for the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy. Brent crude futures, the international oil benchmark, rose 5.04 percent during the week to $109.60 a barrel, marking their highest closing level since March 2026, as geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions outweighed concerns over demand.

The rally was driven by mounting supply risks, including attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, threats to Saudi Arabia's export infrastructure, and Ukrainian strikes on Russia's Ryazan refinery. Tight diesel market conditions also supported prices, with inventories remaining critically low ahead of winter. Developments involving shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi energy infrastructure, and tanker-related sanctions will remain critical for crude oil prices, said Kaynat Chinawala.

Additionally, the White House's decision to delay certain Russia-related sanctions could allow more Russian crude to reach global markets, potentially limiting further price gains despite ongoing geopolitical risks, she added. Further, market participants will closely monitor foreign institutional investor (FII) activity, as experts believe sustained buying by foreign investors is crucial for a meaningful recovery in the equity market.

Until consistent inflows resume, the market's upside is likely to remain capped. FIIs have remained net sellers for several weeks, offloading shares worth Rs 8,990 crore during the week ended October 16 and taking their net outflows for the current month to Rs 48,769 crore, the highest monthly selling total since June. However, the intensity of their selling eased in the last few days, with foreign investors turning net buyers on Friday.

The US 10-year Treasury yield declined 3.07 percent week-on-week to 5.08 percent, from 5.24 percent, extending its downward trend for another week after touching a more than two-decade high of 5.365 percent. Meanwhile, the Indian rupee strengthened 1.89 percent to 94.95 against the US dollar. These developments appear to have supported the shift in FII sentiment. The US Dollar Index also eased after a four-week rally, falling 0.44 percent during the week to 101.78 after touching a weekly high of 102.94, its highest level since April.

In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) continued their buying spree, purchasing shares worth a net Rs 7,813 crore during the week. This took their cumulative net purchases for the current month to more than Rs 48,100 crore. 7) Domestic Economic Data Meanwhile, the infrastructure output for September will be announced on October 21. The output eased to 4.8 percent in August, compared to 5 percent growth in previous month.

Further, HSBC Manufacturing & Services PMI flash numbers for October, and foreign exchange reserves for week ended October 16 will be released on October 23. Manufacturing PMI advanced to 55.1 in September from 52.8 in August, and Services PMI in same period increased to 55.2 from 54.1. Technically, momentum indicators are showing signs of improvement following the recent rally, with the Nifty 50 approaching the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from 24,774 to 22,180.

However, the broader technical structure remains weak, as the index continues to trade below all key moving averages on the weekly chart. Going forward, consolidation may persist unless the index extends its recovery and posts a decisive close above the 23,800–24,000 zone. On the downside, immediate support is placed in the 22,800–23,000 range, followed by a key support zone at 22,500–22,550. The immediate resistance is placed in the 23,300–23,500 range.

9) F&O Cues, India VIX Weekly options data indicate that the 23,500 strike, which has the highest concentration of Call open interest, is likely to act as a key resistance level for the Nifty 50 in the coming week. On the downside, the 22,700 strike, which has the highest Put open interest, is expected to serve as a crucial support level. The 23,000 and 22,900 strikes, which have the next-highest Put open interest, could provide additional immediate support.

Meanwhile, India VIX, the market's fear gauge, declined 2.43 percent during the week to 14.02, extending its downward trend for a second consecutive week. However, it remains at relatively elevated levels, signalling continued caution for bulls. A decisive move above the 16 mark could pose a significant risk to bullish sentiment, while a sustained decline below 12 could provide further support to the bulls. Here are key corporate actions taking place next week: