Dalal Street Week Ahead: FOMC meeting, Q2 earnings among 10 key factors to watch

Brent crude rose to around USD 114 per barrel on Friday. Higher oil prices could add to inflationary pressures, weigh on corporate profit margins and put pressure on the rupee. "Crude oil remains a central concern. Prices at elevated levels amid escalating geopolitical tensions threaten to push up India's energy import bill, complicate the inflation outlook and add pressure on the rupee and corporate margins," Ponmudi R, CEO of online trading and wealth technology firm Enrich Money, said.

2) September-quarter earnings: The September-quarter earnings season for the 2026-27 financial year will remain a key domestic market driver, with investors assessing corporate performance, profit margins and management commentary. The correction in major banking stocks following their results has highlighted investors' sensitivity to earnings quality, forward guidance and valuations amid an uncertain market environment.

Ajit Mishra, senior vice-president of research at Religare Broking, said several companies, including TVS Motor, Asian Paints, Trent, Sun Pharma, Bharat Electronics, Indian Oil, Bank of Baroda and GAIL India, are scheduled to announce their results. "Investors will assess revenue growth, margins, demand trends and management commentary, with earnings surprises likely to trigger sharp stock-specific moves," he said.

3) US Federal Reserve policy decision: The US Federal Reserve's policy decision following its October 27-28 meeting will be the key global event for markets this week. Investors will closely examine the policy statement and commentary for indications of the future interest rate trajectory. The Fed's decision could influence global bond yields, the US dollar and foreign investment flows into emerging markets, including India.

Higher US yields and a stronger dollar could weigh on foreign investor sentiment towards Indian equities, while a more balanced policy outlook could support global markets. "The US Federal Reserve's October 27-28 meeting will be the principal global trigger. Markets largely expect rates to remain unchanged, making the policy guidance more important than the decision itself," Hariselvan Radhakrishnan, founder and CEO of research analyst firm HST Wealth, said.

A continued focus on inflation could push US yields and the dollar higher, keeping foreign flows into emerging markets under pressure, while balanced guidance could support a temporary recovery in global equities, he added. Investors will also track the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision and the European Central Bank's meeting for further cues on global monetary policy. 4) Global economic data: US gross domestic product (GDP) data will be among the key global economic indicators watched by investors this week.

Other global economic releases scheduled during the week will also be monitored for signals on growth, inflation and the outlook for interest rates in major economies. 5) Domestic economic data: Domestic economic indicators will be in focus as investors assess whether India's growth outlook can withstand pressure from elevated crude oil prices and global uncertainties. The industrial production data for September, scheduled for release on October 28, will provide cues on the performance of the manufacturing and industrial sectors.

Other domestic data releases scheduled for the week include the fiscal deficit for September, bank loan and deposit growth for the fortnight ended October 16, and foreign exchange reserves for the week ended October 23. These figures are scheduled for release on October 30. 6) Primary market activity: The stock market debut of Jio Platforms on October 28 will be a key event for investors, with its listing likely to attract significant market attention.

In the primary market, several public issues are also scheduled to open or close during the week. MK Sons Fine Jewels Ltd. has fixed a price band of Rs 153-162 per share for its Rs 275.4-crore initial public offering (IPO). The issue will open for subscription on October 28 and close on October 30. SFC Environmental Technologies, a Navi Mumbai-based wastewater treatment solutions provider, has fixed a price band of Rs 313-330 per share for its IPO.

The issue will open on October 27 and close on October 29. BLS Polymers, a New Delhi-based manufacturer of polymer compounds, will open its Rs 255-crore IPO on October 27. The price band has been fixed at Rs 142-150 per share, valuing the company at Rs 930.5 crore. The IPO comprises a fresh issue of 1.7 crore equity shares and will close on October 29. The anchor investor portion is scheduled to open on October 26.

EAAA India Alternatives Ltd, an arm of Edelweiss Financial Services, will open its IPO for subscription on October 26. The three-day issue will close on October 28, while bidding for anchor investors was scheduled for October 23. Bombay Coated and Special Steels Ltd will open its Rs 183.1-crore IPO on October 29, with the issue closing on November 2. The company has fixed a price band of Rs 78-82 per share.

7) Foreign investor activity: Foreign portfolio investor (FPI) activity will remain a key factor influencing domestic equities. Foreign investors have withdrawn Rs 48,056 crore from Indian equities in October so far. However, their selling moderated significantly last week, with FPIs turning net buyers on two trading days. The latest outflows follow net withdrawals of Rs 35,861 crore in September.

FPIs had invested Rs 20,200 crore in Indian equities in July and Rs 29,631 crore in August, according to data from the Central Depository Services Ltd (CDSL). With the latest withdrawals, cumulative FPI outflows from Indian equities in 2026 have reached Rs 3.08 lakh crore, substantially exceeding the Rs 1.66 lakh crore withdrawn during the entire 2025 calendar year, the data showed. Dheeraj Gaur, chief investment strategy officer at Choice Wealth, told PTI that FPI selling had been driven by elevated crude oil prices, which rose to around USD 114 per barrel amid tensions in the Middle East, weak corporate earnings, inflation concerns and uncertainty over domestic liquidity conditions.

8) Technical outlook: The technical outlook for the Nifty remains cautious following the recent correction and selling pressure at higher levels, according to analysts at Choice Broking. The benchmark index's bearish weekly candle and relative strength index (RSI) reading of 37.34 indicate continued weakness. Although the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) and a rising trendline remain important support levels, the prevailing price structure and weak momentum point to continued downside risks.

The mild recovery towards the end of the previous week indicated some buying interest at lower levels. However, a sustained move above the immediate resistance zone will be needed to improve the technical outlook. On the upside, immediate resistance is placed in the 23,000-23,200 range. A sustained move above this zone could support a recovery towards higher levels. On the downside, support is seen at 22,200-22,350, where the 200-week EMA and rising trendline remain crucial.

A break below this range could intensify selling pressure, while holding above it may lead to consolidation. Until a meaningful recovery emerges, traders are advised to remain cautious and selective, with the overall bias remaining sideways to bearish, the brokerage said. 9) Rupee movement: The rupee depreciated for the second consecutive session on Friday, falling 12 paise to close at 94.93 against the US dollar amid rising crude oil prices and weakness in domestic equities.

Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, including Saudi-Houthi tensions, could keep oil markets volatile and weigh on the domestic currency. Forex traders expect the rupee to remain under pressure due to a stronger dollar and Brent crude prices hovering near USD 114 per barrel. "We expect the rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on elevated crude oil prices amid escalation of tensions in the Middle East and weakness in domestic markets.

Selling FIIs may also pressurise the rupee," Anuj Choudhary, research analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, said. However, softening US Treasury yields and fresh intervention by the Reserve Bank of India could provide support to the rupee at lower levels, he added. Investors will also track corporate actions scheduled for the week, including record dates and other announcements that could influence trading in individual stocks.

In a holiday-shortened previous week, Indian equity markets ended lower as rising crude oil prices amid tensions in West Asia fuelled concerns over inflation and corporate earnings. The Nifty declined 2.4 percent, while the Sensex fell 2.2 percent during the week.