Daily Voice: Wealthyvia CIO bets on three sectors to generate alpha by Diwali 2027

He expects earnings across the broader market to grow by 19 percent or more year-on-year. At the index level, he expects mid- to high-teens earnings growth, with significantly higher growth potential among select supplier businesses. "India is not recovering from anything. It is building something very significant for the world," he said. What are your top three sectoral picks that could generate alpha by Diwali 2027?

Electric equipment, the semiconductor supply chain, and aerospace precision manufacturing. Each rests on committed sovereign money, such as Rs 1.86 lakh crore for the grid corridor. Industrial capex, the 700 GW green mission, data centers, AI and railway electrification add unprecedented demand for power, and hence electric equipment. ISM 2.0 and the Rs 1.64 lakh crore semiconductor mission make India a trusted partner for chips, wafers, OSAT and PCB box builds.

Aerospace is my highest conviction. Indian carriers hold approvals for over 970 aircraft, and the fleet is set to triple. The world is 17,000 aircraft short, and India, with 1,600 to 1,700 planes, is short too. Airbus, Boeing, Safran, Dassault and Rolls Royce are seeking suppliers from India, and four to seven years of certification protects those already inside. Billions of dollars of capex build decadal manufacturing capability, and we see many multibaggers here.

NADCAP, AS9100 and OEM certifications become orders, orders become earnings, and rerating follows. Do you think the market has already priced in most of the worst case scenarios arising from global risks? Yes, comprehensively. Sentiment is at an extreme fear level, with 10 out of 15 respondents expressing bearish views. However, markets generally do not fall sharply during such phases. Meanwhile, domestic institutional investors have bought shares worth Rs 8.5 lakh crore in the current Samvat year, offsetting foreign investor outflows of Rs 5 lakh crore, while SIP inflows remain at record highs.

Prices have paused while earnings kept compounding. When all the bad news is known and ownership is light, the next move belongs to buyers. India is ready to rise on selective megatrends, backed by global MNC forces and bold industrial capex. If so, do you expect the market to rebound over the coming months, or is it likely to remain range-bound at least until the end of the current financial year?

Both, in sequence. A brief consolidation, then a decisive move up as earnings upgrades, the Budget and returning foreign flows arrive together. Markets rise before all clear is sounded; reasons are found and analysed later. I would build positions now, in stages, in businesses with real executable order books. Do you expect oil prices to remain elevated over the next few months despite easing tensions in West Asia?

I am watching Venezuelan oil refining, Jamnagar developments, Russia Ukraine peace talks, and the Iran-US ceasefire talk in Qatar. Clarity should improve after the US midterms in mid-November, and I am optimistic about some correction in oil. Our economy is far less oil intensive than a decade ago. Every electric vehicle, gas turbine and storage project replaces an imported barrel. Energy security is becoming an investment theme.

Do you believe that any weakness in AI related cash flows could trigger a cascading set of problems across the broader market? No. India sits on the supply side of AI, selling power equipment, cooling and components under contracts backed by domestic and enterprise demand. If global capital becomes choosier about AI, it will look for markets whose earnings do not depend on it. India is the natural home.

Indian markets also do not depend on large AI players' capex; opportunities here are multi-dimensional. Has the September quarter earnings season met your expectations? Yes, and it has been better where it matters. Index earnings growth is running well ahead of last year. Banks, capital goods and electrical equipment makers have delivered, IT is recovering on AI services orderbooks, and one company reported profit more than double.

Businesses that build for India are proving the thesis quarter by quarter. Nifty 50's strong Q2 earnings beat, with the Midcap and Smallcap indices, shows powerful structural momentum. Do you expect earnings growth to strengthen in the coming quarters? Yes. Nifty 500 earnings are expanding, and this broad-based resilience positions all indices for an optimistic FY28, with broader market earnings projected to grow 19 percent or more year on year.

Midcap index five-year earnings CAGR is 17.8 percent. Commissioned capacity, order conversion and operating leverage should lift margins. I expect mid to high teens growth at the index level and far more in focused supplier businesses. Earnings are the tide, and prices are the surfboards. India is not recovering from anything. It is building something very significant for the world.