Christopher Wood swapped Nvidia for a Greek infrastructure stock. The bet is paying off

Jefferies’ global head of equity strategy Christopher Wood’s decision to replace Nvidia with a Greek infrastructure company is emerging as a powerful contrarian trade, underscoring how investors are looking beyond the artificial intelligence boom for the next leg of equity market returns.Wood removed Nvidia from his global long-only equity portfolio and replaced it with GEK TERNA on Oct. 9, 2025. Since then, the Greek stock has risen 65% in US-dollar terms, compared with a 15% gain for Nvidia, according to his latest Jefferies GREED & fear report.The report describes GEK TERNA as a “solid long-term compounder story,” while cautioning that a pause in its sharp rally would not be surprising.The trade reflects Wood’s broader preference for markets and companies benefiting from improving macroeconomic fundamentals rather than continued enthusiasm around AI-linked technology stocks.Greece has staged a significant turnaround since Wood first recommended investing in the country during the pandemic.

The Athens Stock Exchange General Index has risen 302% from 657 in 2020 to 2,644, while average daily trading volume has increased from €64 million in 2020 to €355 million so far this year.Live Events Why Swiggy investors are losing patience with InstamartGreece is also due to return to MSCI developed-market status from May next year, according to the report.The country’s improving fiscal position is central to the investment case.

Greece recorded an overall fiscal surplus of 1.7% of gross domestic product in 2025 and is expected to remain in surplus this year. Real GDP growth is forecast at 2% in 2026, after expanding 2.1% in 2025.The government’s digitalisation push has also helped lift tax revenues. Annualised tax revenues as a percentage of GDP have risen from 24.5% in 2020 to 28% in the 12 months to August 2026. The government has placed 2,200 public services on a single portal, while at least 83 taxes have been eliminated or reduced since 2019.GEK TERNA is positioned to benefit from this improving backdrop through its infrastructure exposure.

The company’s share price performance has also come as the Greek market has attracted a new wave of capital. More than 13 new listings and secondary offerings have taken place on Euronext Athens this year, raising more than €8 billion.Valuations remain supportive. The MSCI Greece Index trades at 10.4 times 12-month forward earnings, while consensus expects forward earnings growth of 10%, according to the report.

It continues to hold Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, TSMC and Kioxia. But the Nvidia-to-GEK TERNA switch highlights a different investment approach: reducing exposure to crowded AI trades and increasing exposure to companies tied to infrastructure, fiscal reform and economic normalisation.The Greek bet also fits into Wood’s wider emerging market strategy. In Brazil, he argues that equities could benefit from a potential return to fiscal orthodoxy after the presidential election.

Brazilian stocks trade at 9.5 times 12-month forward earnings and offer a projected 2026 dividend yield of 5.3%.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)(You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)