Anthropic worth $1.48 trillion, below potential IPO valuation, says Aswath Damodaran

His valuation assumes Anthropic’s revenue will reach $1 trillion by 2036, with an operating margin of 27.5%, after accounting for the potential impact of regulation. He also assumes a cost of capital of 9.74% and that every dollar of capital invested will generate $3 in additional revenue over time. The estimate includes the present value of Anthropic’s computing commitments in its debt calculation and assumes $100 billion in cash proceeds from the offering.

Growth versus the cost of computing Damodaran highlighted Anthropic’s rapid revenue growth as a key positive, with revenue in the first two quarters of 2026 approximately 14 times that of the corresponding period a year earlier. However, he flagged a slowdown in growth in the third quarter, attributing it to increased competition from OpenAI, constraints on computing capacity and some enterprise customers shifting to cheaper open-source models.

The company’s ambitious growth plans will also require substantial reinvestment in computing infrastructure. Damodaran noted that chips depreciate technologically and need replacement, while increasingly powerful models could require more computing capacity, data-centre space and electricity. Regulation is another risk. He expects it to reduce Anthropic’s operating margin from an assumed 32.5% before regulatory costs to 27.5%.

The range of possible outcomes is wide. Under a pessimistic scenario, with revenue reaching just $200 billion by 2036 and operating margins falling to 10%, Damodaran’s model produces a negative equity value of $373 billion. In his most optimistic scenario, revenue reaches $1.5 trillion and operating margins hit 40%, taking equity value to $4.04 trillion. Governance concerns add to the risks Damodaran also questioned Anthropic’s corporate governance structure, which includes five classes of shares with differing voting rights and a benefit trust that selects the board.

He argued that the structure gives founders control over 50.1% of voting rights, limiting the influence of public shareholders. On the IPO itself, Damodaran said investors should distinguish between market pricing and fundamental valuation. If Anthropic is priced substantially above his estimate, he would prefer to stay on the sidelines rather than chase the stock. The company’s prospects, he argued, will ultimately depend on whether its growth, margins and economics justify the expectations embedded in its market valuation.