Ambani looks to defy gravity in debut after India-record Jio IPO

The shares traded at a premium of about 22% on the gray market late on Tuesday, according to the ipowatch.in and investorgain.com platforms. Jio’s trading debut is the final hurdle for the long-awaited IPO of one of the crown jewels of Ambani’s empire. The listing is a rare opportunity for investors to buy into one of the world’s biggest growth stories of the past decade: Asia’s third-richest person took a major Reliance Industries Ltd. unit public for the first time in almost 20 years.

In the buildup to the deal — lead by the patriarch’s oldest son Akash Ambani — the company’s brass was selling Jio, the telecom and financial services arm of Reliance, as a full-throttle tech giant. In the end, the valuation fell short of some earlier expectations against the backdrop of a selloff in Indian stocks and global equity market volatility. Still, the offering proved popular, raising hopes of a strong debut.

“While a strong listing day gain seems likely, the true test will be how how Akash Ambani and the leadership team sustain that momentum over the long haul,” said Kranthi Bathini, Director of Equity Strategy, at WealthMills Securities. “That long-term value creation will make all the difference.” Despite the investor demand in the offering and the indications from the unofficial market, history points to a potentially rocky debut as the country’s biggest listings have frequently stumbled out of the gate.

The four IPOs that raised at least $2 billion this decade posted a weighted-average decline of 9.9% on their first day, with only one — National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. last month — recording a gain on debut, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The longer-term record is hardly more encouraging. Each of India’s five biggest previous IPOs is now trading below its offer price, underscoring how blockbuster share sales have often struggled to reward investors.

Hyundai Motor India Ltd., whose 279 billion-rupee IPO held the record before Jio’s, is about 6% below its offer price. NSE, which raised about $2.4 billion last month, has also slipped below its offering price. Paytm parent One97 Communications Ltd. and state-owned Life Insurance Corporation of India Ltd. are both down more than 20%. Coal India Ltd., LG Electronics India Ltd. and ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. are some of the notable exceptions among India’s largest IPOs.

If Jio’s gray-market premium carries through to Wednesday, it would also make Jio India’s second-most valuable listed company after parent Reliance Industries Ltd., pushing rival Bharti Airtel Ltd. into third place. The optimism is partly fueled by extraordinary demand for the offering. Jio’s IPO was fully subscribed within 100 minutes of opening, according to BSE Ltd. data. The deal attracted more than $78 billion of bids and nearly 14 million applications.

At 1,119 rupees a share, the company is valued at about 15 times fiscal 2026 enterprise value to Ebitda on a post-issue basis, implying a premium to industry peers, according to Geojit Investments Ltd. Geojit said the premium is supported by Jio’s market leadership, improving monetization and strong cash generation. Cloud computing, artificial intelligence, enterprise solutions, entertainment, digital platforms and fixed broadband could provide additional earnings drivers over the medium to long term, it said.

Risks, though, include Jio’s dependence on telecommunications licenses and spectrum, with delays in approvals, non-renewal of licenses or difficulties acquiring additional spectrum threatening to weigh on the business, according to Religare Broking Ltd.