A 47% crash, a blocked demerger: Inside Ashish Dhawan’s 3 contrarian bets

He has a new 1% stake in Allcargo Global, which listed only in July. And he has lifted his Religare Enterprises holding to 7.3%, from 5.2% in June. Meanwhile, his stakes in M&M Financial Services and Digitide Solutions slipped below the 1% disclosure line. What ties the three together is pain. One stock has gone nowhere in five years. One has lost almost half its value in under four months. One fell after the regulator blocked its biggest plan.

Yet each business is in some stage of repair. So, is Dhawan early, or simply wrong? Let us try to find out. FE Stock Insights on WhatsApPGet instant alerts on high-conviction investment themes and fundamental deep dives—direct from Financial Express.Join now #1 Equitas Small Finance Bank: Why Dhawan Returned to a Stock Stuck at 2021 Prices Incorporated in 2007 as a microfinance company, Equitas Small Finance Bank got its small finance bank licence in 2016.

It now runs 1,053 banking outlets across 18 states and union territories, with Tamil Nadu alone making up 44% of its loans. He held about 4% through FY26, including 4.59 crore shares at the end of December 2025. Then his holdings fell below the regulatory disclosure threshold in the June 2026 quarter. Filings only name holders above 1%, so it is not clear whether he sold out or only trimmed. Either way, he is back with 4.69 crore shares, or 4.1%, which is 10 lakh shares more than in December.

At the closing price on 21st October 2026, the stake is worth about Rs 314 cr. He has company. Domestic institutions now own 52.25% of the bank, up from 42.62% in December 2024. Small shareholders are heading the other way. Their count has fallen 22% over the same period, from 4.57 lakh to 3.56 lakh. The Microfinance Hit Behind an 87% Profit Slide The reason is no secret. Microfinance borrowers came under stress across the industry, and Equitas had to set aside large sums for bad loans.

Net profit fell from Rs 799 cr in FY24 to Rs 103 cr in FY26. 5-Year Financials for Equitas Small Finance Bank Financial YearFY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY265Y CAGRRevenue (Rs cr)3,1943,4604,1625,4866,3126,79416%Financing Profit (Rs cr)170-84184399-564-779NMNet Profit (Rs cr)384281574799147103-23%Source: Screener.in NM: not meaningful. For a bank, EBITDA tells you little, so the table shows financing profit.

That is income left after interest, costs and provisions, before other income. Other income, mostly fees, was Rs 1,074 cr in FY26, over ten times the net profit. The turn shows in the quarterly numbers. After a loss of Rs 224 cr in the June 2025 quarter, the bank earned Rs 213 cr in the March 2026 quarter and Rs 184 cr in the June 2026 quarter. Over that year, gross NPA eased from 2.92% to 2.42% and net NPA from 0.98% to 0.71%.

Equitas Share Price: Five Years, Zero Gain The share price of Equitas Small Finance Bank was around Rs 67 in October 2021 and as on 22nd October 2026 it was about Rs 67. Five years, and the stock has barely moved. As for valuations, the share is trading at a PE of 15x compared to the current industry median of 12x. The 10-year median PE for the company is 17x while the industry median for the same period is 14x.

Equitas listed in late 2020, so its median covers about six years. Borrowings jumped from Rs 2,137 cr to Rs 5,773 cr in FY26. Return on equity was just 2% in each of the last two years. And there is no promoter, so ownership rests fully with institutions and the public. #2 Allcargo Global: Dhawan's Fresh Buy in a Stock That Halved After Listing Allcargo Global is the overseas freight arm of the Allcargo group, run under the ECU Worldwide brand.

It does not own ships. It fills shared containers with small loads from many exporters, a niche where the company says it holds about 14 to 15% of the world market. It was carved out of Allcargo Logistics under a tribunal-approved demerger effective 1st November 2025, and its shares began trading on 3rd July 2026. The debut was however a disappointment for most. From a first-day close of Rs 20.90, the stock hit its 5% lower limit for nine sessions in a row.

On 22nd October 2026, it was at Rs 11, some 47% below that first close. That is where Dhawan stepped in. The September 2026 filing shows him with 98.39 lakh shares, or 1.0%, just enough to cross the disclosure line. Worth about Rs 11 cr today, it is a starter position by his standards. The Operational Void: Why Sales Don't Equal Profits Financials For Allcargo Global PeriodFY24 (8 months)FY25FY26Q1 FY27Sales (Rs cr)5,64214,07712,7583,522EBITDA (Rs cr)1333361128Net Profit (Rs cr)943-290-28Source: Screener.in EBITDA is operating profit before other income. 5-year CAGRs are not available as the company was formed through a demerger.

On FY26 sales of Rs 12,758 cr, the company made an operating profit of just Rs 11 cr and a net loss of Rs 290 cr. Sales fell 9% from FY25, and return on equity was minus 20%. There are early signs of repair. In the June 2026 quarter, the net loss shrank to Rs 28 cr, from Rs 87 cr a year earlier. In its results filed with BSE, the company said standalone borrowings fell to Rs 272 cr by June, from Rs 314 cr in March.

A Rating Cut and No PE to Lean On On 23rd September 2026, CRISIL lowered its long-term rating to A- with a stable outlook, from A with a negative outlook in March. With losses on the books, there is no PE to quote. The current industry median PE is 26x and the 10-year industry median is 29x, but Allcargo Global has no history of its own to compare. A business with over Rs 12,000 cr of sales is now valued at about Rs 1,082 cr.

Borrowings stood at Rs 1,338 cr in March 2026, and freight remains a cyclical, low-margin trade. #3 Religare Enterprises: A Rs 173 Crore Bet After the RBI Said No Religare Enterprises is now run by the Burman family of Dabur. Its main asset is Care Health Insurance, alongside Religare Finvest, which lends to small businesses, plus housing finance and broking arms. Dhawan has held it for years, building from 2.3% in late 2024 to 5.2% by June 2026.

Then came August. On 6th August 2026, according to the company's filing with BSE, the RBI declined to approve the plan to move the lending business into Religare Finvest. The company said it would keep talking to the regulator, but gave no timeline. Three weeks later, Dhawan stepped in. His disclosures to the exchanges under SEBI's takeover rules show 38 lakh shares bought on 28th August for about Rs 88 cr, and 36 lakh more on 31st August at an average of Rs 237, for about Rs 85 cr.

He also holds 36.19 lakh warrants that can turn into shares later. The September filing puts him at 2.53 crore shares, or 7.3%. At the closing price on 21st October 2026, that is worth about Rs 530 cr, his largest disclosed holding. It also sits 9 to 10% below what he paid in August. Religare Share Price vs Profit: Sales Tripled, Earnings Did Not 5-Year Financials For Religare Enterprises Financial YearFY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY265Y CAGRSales (Rs cr)2,5133,2274,6796,2667,3948,46227%EBITDA (Rs cr)278-364483368356156-11%Net Profit (Rs cr)-478-1,5393,16934718373NMSource: Screener.in EBITDA is operating profit before other income.

NM: not meaningful Sales have more than tripled in five years, carried mainly by health insurance premiums. Profit went the other way. The FY23 figure of Rs 3,169 cr came from one-time other income of Rs 3,473 cr. FY21 was a loss year, so a profit growth rate means nothing. Operating profit has shrunk every year since FY23. Religare lost Rs 47 cr on sales of Rs 2,353 cr in the June 2026 quarter, leaving trailing twelve-month profit at just Rs 18 cr.

A new managing director, Arjun Lamba, took charge on 12th August 2026. Unlocking the Value of Care Health The share price of Religare Enterprises was around Rs 162 in October 2021 and as on 22nd October 2026 it was Rs 209, a gain of 30% in five years. Regarding valuations, the stock is trading at a PE of 146x compared to the current industry median of 21x. The 10-year median PE for the company is 77x while the industry median for the same period is 20x.

Clearly, the market is pricing the value inside Care Health and the lending arm, not today's profit. The RBI's refusal makes that value harder to unlock for now. Dhawan seems to be betting on a delay, not a dead end. Even so, there is no dividend, return on equity is about 3%, and the wait could be long. Ashish Dhawan's Contrarian Playbook: What Investors Should Track Next Three different businesses, one habit.

In each case, Dhawan bought where the news was bad, the price was down and earnings were near a low. The size of each bet shows how sure he is. Religare, at about Rs 537 cr, is a conviction call. Equitas, at about Rs 317 cr, is a return to a familiar name. Allcargo Global, at about Rs 11 cr, is a toe in the water. None of this guarantees a happy ending. Bad loans can return, freight can stay weak and regulators may not budge.

And buying after a superstar investor is never the same as buying at his price. The first answers are close. Equitas reports on 29th October, Allcargo Global's September quarter results are due soon, and Religare's talks with the RBI remain open. A sensible step would be to add these stocks to a watchlist and see whether the numbers start backing Dhawan's patience. Disclaimer: Note: We have relied on data from www.Screener.in and www.trendlyne.com throughout this article.

Only in cases where the data was not available, have we used an alternate, but widely used and accepted source of information, including filings made available on the BSE website. The purpose of this article is only to share interesting charts, data points and thought-provoking opinions. It is NOT a recommendation. If you wish to consider an investment, you are strongly advised to consult your advisor.

This article is strictly for educative purposes only. Suhel Khan has been a passionate follower of the markets for over a decade. During this period, He was an integral part of a leading Equity Research organisation based in Mumbai as the Head of Sales & Marketing. Presently, he is spending most of his time dissecting the investments and strategies of the Super Investors of India. Disclosure: The writer and his dependents do not hold the stocks discussed in this article.

The website managers, its employee(s), and contributors/writers/authors of articles have or may have an outstanding buy or sell position or holding in the securities, options on securities or other related investments of issuers and/or companies discussed therein. The content of the articles and the interpretation of data are solely the personal views of the contributors/ writers